Nov 4, 2026
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Read Article Mavericks vs. Spurs prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 4, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dimers Data
Our Mavericks vs. Spurs predictions include win probabilities, the latest odds, and player projections.
The San Antonio Spurs are favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks at Frost Bank Center on Wednesday (9:30 PM ET), according to Dimers' NBA model.
Our Mavericks vs. Spurs prediction gives San Antonio an 81.2% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Mavericks to cover at +12.5.
Mavericks vs. Spurs key predictions
- Predicted score: Spurs 118-108 Mavericks
- Spurs win probability: 81.2%
- Mavericks win probability: 18.8%
- Mavericks +12.5 spread: 55.8% cover probability
- Under 226.5 points: 50.1% probability
Our NBA predictions project each team's score based on player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage.
We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities from these projections, comparing them against current odds to find betting value.
Mavericks vs. Spurs odds
Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.
- Mavericks moneyline: 18¢ (Novig)
- Spurs moneyline: 83¢ (Polymarket)
- Mavericks +12.5: 51¢ (Novig)
- Spurs -12.5: 50¢ (Novig)
- Over 226.5 points: 51¢ (Novig)
- Under 226.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)
Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.
Mavericks vs. Spurs pick: Mavericks +12.5 (51¢)
Our model makes the Spurs the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Mavericks to cover the +12.5 spread at 51¢ on Novig.
Those odds give the Mavericks an implied cover probability of 51.0%, while our model puts it at 55.8%.
That's a 4.8% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.
Mavericks vs. Spurs player projections
Dimers' NBA player projections cover points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent performance, expected minutes, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.
Spurs star Victor Wembanyama leads the scoring projections for this matchup with 27.2 points, plus 11.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists. The Spurs have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Mavericks' two.
Top 5 projected scorers
- Victor Wembanyama (Spurs): 27.2 points
- Cooper Flagg (Mavericks): 24.9
- Kyrie Irving (Mavericks): 18.5
- Dylan Harper (Spurs): 17.4
- Stephon Castle (Spurs): 17.0
Projections are estimates, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to judge value.
Get every Mavericks vs. Spurs prediction with Dimers Pro
Dimers Pro members get full access to our Mavericks vs. Spurs predictions, including:
- Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
- Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams
- Player prop edges for points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks
Mavericks vs. Spurs game details
- Matchup: Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Date: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center
About this prediction
This preview uses predictions from our NBA models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.
Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.
Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
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Dimers Data Dimers Data publishes sports predictions and betting insights powered by Dimers' proprietary predictive models. The team develops and maintains the automated publishing systems used to deliver consistent, data-driven coverage across major sports.
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