Sep 17, 2026
MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Athletics vs. Rays play [9/17/2026]
Read Article MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Freddy Fermin [9/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get MLB player props today with projections for Thursday's games.
Dimers' MLB player props are live for September 17, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Freddy Fermin, Manny Machado and Nolan McLean.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously to analyze every matchup—including Padres vs. Rockies and Tigers vs. White Sox—and surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop picks for Thursday, 9/17
Sourced from 20+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for September 17, ranked by probability.
Freddy Fermin to get a hit (-210)
- Edge: 5.2%
- Probability: 72.9%
- Game: Padres vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET)
Our model has found value on Padres' Freddy Fermin to get a hit. A probability of 72.9% gives this play an edge of 5.2% at -210 odds.
Manny Machado over 1.5 bases (-125)
- Edge: 9.6%
- Probability: 65.1%
- Game: Padres vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET)
Manny Machado’s bases prop shows a 65.1% probability and an 9.6% edge at -125 odds, according to our model.
Nolan McLean under 5.5 strikeouts (-122)
- Edge: 6.7%
- Probability: 61.7%
- Game: Phillies vs. Mets (7:15PM ET)
The data highlights value on Nolan McLean under 5.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 61.7% probability and a 6.7% edge at -122.
Tanner Gordon under 3.5 strikeouts (-108)
- Edge: 9.7%
- Probability: 61.6%
- Game: Padres vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET)
Our model finds value on Tanner Gordon under 3.5 strikeouts, with a 61.6% probability and an edge of 9.7% at -108 odds.
Jackson Merrill over 1.5 bases (-130)
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 61.5%
- Game: Padres vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Jackson Merrill over 1.5 bases for Padres, showing an edge of 5.0% at -130 odds.
Brett Baty to get a hit (-110)
- Edge: 3.0%
- Probability: 55.4%
- Game: Phillies vs. Mets (7:15PM ET)
Brett Baty’s to get a hit prop shows an edge of 3.0% at -110 odds, supported by a 55.4% probability according to our model.
Erick Fedde over 3.5 strikeouts (+118)
- Edge: 9.4%
- Probability: 55.3%
- Game: Tigers vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Erick Fedde over 3.5 strikeouts for White Sox, with a 55.3% probability and a 9.4% edge at +118 odds.
Fernando Tatis Jr. over 2.5 bases (+123)
- Edge: 9.3%
- Probability: 54.2%
- Game: Padres vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET)
The data shows value on Fernando Tatis Jr. over 2.5 bases, supported by a 54.2% probability at +123 odds and an edge of 9.3%.
Framber Valdez over 17.5 outs recorded (+103)
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 53.4%
- Game: Tigers vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET)
A 4.1% edge on the over 2.5 outs recorded line makes Framber Valdez a value play in Tigers vs. White Sox, supported by a 53.4% probability at +103 odds.
Luis Campusano over 1.5 bases (+103)
- Edge: 3.0%
- Probability: 52.3%
- Game: Padres vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET)
Simulations show value on Luis Campusano over 1.5 bases here, with a 52.3% probability and 3.0% edge at +103 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Thursday, September 17, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 12:08AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres vs. Rockies | Freddy Fermin to get a hit | -210 @ DraftKings | 5.2% | 72.9% |
| Padres vs. Rockies | Manny Machado o1.5 bases | -125 @ Fanatics | 9.6% | 65.1% |
| Phillies vs. Mets | Nolan McLean u5.5 strikeouts | -122 @ FanDuel | 9.7% | 61.6% |
| Padres vs. Rockies | Tanner Gordon u3.5 strikeouts | -108 @ FanDuel | 9.7% | 61.6% |
| Padres vs. Rockies | Jackson Merrill o1.5 bases | -130 @ Fanatics | 5.0% | 61.5% |
| Phillies vs. Mets | Brett Baty to get a hit | -110 @ Fanatics | 3.0% | 55.4% |
| Tigers vs. White Sox | Erick Fedde o3.5 strikeouts | +118 @ FanDuel | 9.4% | 55.3% |
| Padres vs. Rockies | Fernando Tatis Jr. o2.5 bases | +123 @ DraftKings | 9.3% | 54.2% |
| Tigers vs. White Sox | Framber Valdez o17.5 outs recorded | +103 @ DraftKings | 4.1% | 53.4% |
| Padres vs. Rockies | Luis Campusano o1.5 bases | +103 @ DraftKings | 3.0% | 52.3% |
Conclusion
For September 17, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Freddy Fermin, Manny Machado and Nolan McLean. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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