Sep 16, 2026
Royals vs. Astros prediction: Houston favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/16/2026]
Read Article Marlins vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Why Arizona is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 57.9% win probability for the Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins will lock horns in MLB action at Chase Field on Wednesday, starting at 9:40 PM ET.
Merrill Kelly (9-13, 4.97 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, up against Ryan Gusto (1-5, 4.14 ERA) for the Marlins.
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Diamondbacks as the most likely winner in this Marlins vs. Diamondbacks prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB game between the Marlins and Diamondbacks, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Diamondbacks a 57.9% chance of defeating the Marlins. According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 57.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 58.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-170) / Diamondbacks -1.5 (+163)
- Moneyline: Marlins +122, Diamondbacks -125
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-108/+106)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 @ 38¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks @ 56¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 52¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB action between the Diamondbacks and Marlins at Chase Field is scheduled to start at 9:40 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2026
- Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
- Venue: Chase Field
Conclusion
We predict the Diamondbacks, with a 57.9% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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