Marlins vs. Diamondbacks: MLB Prediction & Analysis

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Marlins vs. Diamondbacks MLB game on Wednesday, September 16, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB sport icon
MLB
Marlins
Ryan Gusto 1-5, 4.14 ERA
4
3
Chase Field
D-Backs
Merrill Kelly 9-13, 4.97 ERA
Chase Field
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Marlins
0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 10 0
D-Backs
0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 3 10 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Marlins
    100%
  • D-Backs
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Lars Nootbaar walks.
Quick Box Score
Marlins Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 G. Pauley 1B0000000.0000.000
2 H. Hernández LF5041001.8001.600
3 O. Lopez SS5020001.4000.800
4 G. Conine DH5000003.0000.000
5 J. Sanoja 3B4110001.2500.500
6 J. Marsee CF3222110.6672.750
7 X. Edwards 2B3100011.0000.250
8 J. Mack C4000002.0000.000
9 E. Ruiz RF3000010.0000.250
D-Backs Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 J. Lawlar PR0000000.0000.000
2 K. Marte 2B4010002.2500.500
3 G. Moreno C4131100.7502.500
4 G. Perdomo SS3010011.3330.833
5 C. Carroll RF4000002.0000.000
6 N. Arenado 3B4121100.5001.750
7 J. Fernandez DH2010001.5001.000
8 P. Smith 1B4121100.5001.750
9 T. Tawa CF4000001.0000.000

Marlins vs. Diamondbacks: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: MLB Wednesday

  • Teams: Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2026
  • Time: 9:40PM ET
  • Venue: Chase Field

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Marlins (+1.5, -163), Diamondbacks (-1.5, +160)
  • Moneyline: Marlins +125, Diamondbacks -127
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5 runs (-120/+117)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Marlins: 41.4%
  • Diamondbacks: 58.6%

Dimers' predictive MLB model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Marlins a win probability of 41.4%, while the Diamondbacks have a win probability of 58.6%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Diamondbacks are more likely to beat the Marlins in the MLB game at Chase Field on Wednesday. Discover the best run line, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Marlins vs. Diamondbacks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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