Phillies vs. Mets: MLB Prediction & Analysis

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Phillies vs. Mets MLB game on Thursday, September 17, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
MLB
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MLB
Phillies
Aaron Nola 6-10, 4.69 ERA
vs.
Citi Field
Mets
Nolan McLean 11-9, 3.24 ERA
Citi Field
Pre-Game Probabilities Last Update:

Moneyline

Moneyline
Win %
  • Phillies
    44.9%
    NovigNovig
  • Mets
    55.1%
    NovigNovig

Phillies vs. Mets: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: MLB Thursday

  • Teams: Philadelphia Phillies vs. NY Mets Mets
  • Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
  • Time: 7:15PM ET
  • Venue: Citi Field

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Phillies (+1.5, -167), Mets (-1.5, +163)
  • Moneyline: Phillies +122, Mets -125
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5 runs (+108/-117)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Phillies: 44.3%
  • Mets: 55.7%

Dimers' predictive MLB model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Phillies a win probability of 44.3%, while the Mets have a win probability of 55.7%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Mets are more likely to beat the Phillies in the MLB game at Citi Field on Thursday. Discover the best run line, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Phillies vs. Mets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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