Sep 17, 2026
Athletics vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/17/2026]
Read Article Brewers vs. Pirates prediction: Why Milwaukee is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 53.5% win probability for the Brewers at PNC Park.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will square off with the Milwaukee Brewers, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at PNC Park on Thursday, starting at 12:35 PM ET.
The Pirates will have Wilber Dotel (1-5, 4.84 ERA) as their starting pitcher, up against Kyle Harrison (10-4, 3.98 ERA) for the Brewers.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Brewers a slight edge with a 53.5% win probability over the Pirates.
This article offers a complete Brewers vs. Pirates prediction, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Kyle Harrison's projected pitching stats.
Brewers vs. Pirates prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's MLB game between the Brewers and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Brewers a 53.5% chance of defeating the Pirates. According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 58.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 9-run over/under has a 51.2% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+122) / Pirates +1.5 (-127)
- Moneyline: Brewers -133, Pirates +134
- Total: Over/Under 9 (+100/-115)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 @ 56¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Pirates @ 43¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Over 9 @ +100 via BetMGM
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pirates to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Thursday's MLB action between the Pirates and Brewers at PNC Park is scheduled to start at 12:35 PM ET.
- Who: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
- Time: 12:35 PM ET/9:35AM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Brewers, with a 53.5% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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