MLB picks today: Friday's MLB best bets include Rangers vs. Astros play [7/31/2026]
Get MLB picks today and best bets for Friday, July 31, 2026.
Today’s MLB picks for July 31, 2026 are here, with Rangers vs. Astros and Phillies vs. Orioles among the top plays identified by our model across Friday’s MLB play.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, going over the latest baseball odds to uncover real betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of MLB best bets today [7/31, updated 5:07PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 MLB best bets, ranked by edge for Friday, July 31, 2026.
Rangers vs. Astros Over 7.5 runs (-102)
- Edge: 7.3%
- Probability: 57.8%
- Matchup: Rangers vs. Astros (8:15PM ET)
Our model has identified value on Over 7.5 runs in Rangers vs. Astros at -102 odds. A 57.8% probability produces an edge of 7.3%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.
Phillies vs. Orioles Over 8.5 runs (-115)
- Edge: 7.3%
- Probability: 60.7%
- Matchup: Phillies vs. Orioles (7:05PM ET)
Phillies vs. Orioles over 8.5 runs carries a 7.3% edge and a probability of 60.7% at -115 odds, according to our model.
Nationals vs. Braves Over 9.5 runs (+120)
- Edge: 6.4%
- Probability: 51.8%
- Matchup: Nationals vs. Braves (7:15PM ET)
Nationals vs. Braves Over 9.5 runs at +120 odds shows a 6.4% edge, supported by a 51.8% probability in simulations.
Royals vs. Rockies over 11.5 runs (+117)
- Edge: 5.5%
- Probability: 51.5%
- Matchup: Royals vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)
A 5.5% edge and 51.5% probability make Royals vs. Rockies over 11.5 runs a value play in the Royals vs. Rockies matchup, per our model.
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 runs (+102)
- Edge: 5.1%
- Probability: 54.6%
- Matchup: Cardinals vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 runs at +102 odds presents a 5.1% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 54.6%.
Twins vs. Mariners Over 7.5 runs (-108)
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 56.7%
- Matchup: Twins vs. Mariners (10:10PM ET)
Our model finds value on Over 7.5 runs in Twins vs. Mariners at -108 odds, supported by an edge of 4.8%.
Pirates vs. Reds Over 7.5 runs (-108)
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 56.7%
- Matchup: Pirates vs. Reds (6:10PM ET)
Our model has uncovered value on Pirates vs. Reds Over 7.5 runs at -108 odds. A 56.7% probability produces a 4.8% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.
Brewers vs. Angels Over 9.5 runs (+122)
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 49.2%
- Matchup: Brewers vs. Angels (9:38PM ET)
A 4.1% edge on a 49.2% probability makes Over 9.5 runs at +122 odds a solid value play in today's Brewers vs. Angels matchup.
Athletics ML (+130)
- Edge: 4.0%
- Probability: 47.5%
- Matchup: Tigers vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET)
Our model projects value on Athletics to win at +130 odds. A 47.5% probability produces a 4.0% edge, making Athletics the favorable ML play in today's matchup.
Red Sox vs. Dodgers Over 8.5 runs (+108)
- Edge: 3.9%
- Probability: 52%
- Matchup: Red Sox vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Red Sox vs. Dodgers Over 8.5 runs at +108 odds shows a 52% probability and a 3.9% edge.
MLB best bets summary: Friday, 7/31/2026
As of 5:07PM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers vs. Astros | Over 7.5 runs | -102 @ Novig | 7.3% | 57.8% |
| Phillies vs. Orioles | Over 8.5 runs | -115 @ Novig | 7.3% | 60.7% |
| Nationals vs. Braves | Over 9.5 Runs | +120 @ Novig | 6.4% | 51.8% |
| Royals vs. Rockies | Over 11.5 runs | +117 @ Polymarket | 5.5% | 51.5% |
| Cardinals vs. Blue Jays | Over 7.5 Runs | +102 @ Novig | 5.1% | 54.6% |
| Twins vs. Mariners | Over 7.5 Runs | -108 @ Novig | 4.8% | 56.7% |
| Pirates vs. Reds | Over 7.5 Runs | -108 @ Polymarket | 4.8% | 56.7% |
| Brewers vs. Angels | Over 9.5 Runs | +122 @ Polymarket | 4.1% | 49.2% |
| Tigers vs. Athletics | Athletics ML | +130 @ Novig | 4.0% | 47.5% |
| Red Sox vs. Dodgers | Over 8.5 Runs | +108 @ Novig | 3.9% | 52% |
List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [7/31/2026]
- Pirates vs. Reds (6:10PM ET, Friday)
- Phillies vs. Orioles (7:05PM ET, Friday)
- Cardinals vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Friday)
- Marlins vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Friday)
- D-Backs vs. Guardians (7:10PM ET, Friday)
- White Sox vs. Rays (7:10PM ET, Friday)
- Nationals vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Friday)
- Rangers vs. Astros (8:15PM ET, Friday)
- Royals vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Friday)
- Brewers vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Friday)
- Tigers vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET, Friday)
- Giants vs. Padres (9:45PM ET, Friday)
- Twins vs. Mariners (10:10PM ET, Friday)
- Red Sox vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Friday)
- Cardinals vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET, Saturday)
- Twins vs. Mariners (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
- White Sox vs. Rays (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
- Marlins vs. Mets (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
Conclusion
Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for July 31, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Rangers vs. Astros matchup and over 8.5 runs in the Phillies vs. Orioles matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
