Sep 24, 2026
Cardinals vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/24/2026]
Read Article Rays vs. Yankees prediction: Yankees favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/24/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 59.3% win probability for the Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
The New York Yankees will face the Tampa Bay Rays in MLB action at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, starting at 7:05 PM ET.
Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.94 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Yankees, while the Rays will counter with Ian Seymour (9-7, 4.38 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Yankees as the most likely winner in this Rays vs. Yankees prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Cam Schlittler's pitching projections.
Rays vs. Yankees prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Rays and Yankees, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Yankees a 59.3% chance of beating the Rays. According to our model, the Rays (+1.5) have a 59.9% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 6.5 runs has a 55.8% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-170) / Yankees -1.5 (+167)
- Moneyline: Rays +138, Yankees -141
- Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+117/-122)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Yankees @ 59¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 6.5 @ 46¢ via Polymarket
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Thursday's MLB action between the Yankees and Rays at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to commence at 7:05 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
- Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
- Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05PM PT
- Venue: Yankee Stadium
Conclusion
We predict the Yankees, with a 59.3% win probability, will likely beat the Rays in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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