Brewers vs. Phillies prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/24/2026]

The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Milwaukee Brewers, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, starting at 6:05 PM ET.

Andrew Painter (3-10, 5.59 ERA) will start for the Phillies, while the Brewers have opted for Shane Drohan (7-5, 4.26 ERA).

Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Phillies a slight edge with a 52.5% win probability over the Brewers.

This article offers a complete Brewers vs. Phillies prediction, including best bets and picks.

Brewers vs. Phillies prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Brewers and Phillies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Phillies a 52.5% chance of defeating the Brewers. According to our model, the Brewers (+1.5) have a 64.4% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 56.4% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Brewers +1.5 (-170) / Phillies -1.5 (+170)
• Moneyline: Brewers +118, Phillies -122
• Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-111/+108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Brewers +1.5 @ 63¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Brewers @ +118 via Caesars
• Total: Over 7.5 @ 53¢ via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Thursday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Brewers at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to begin at 6:05 PM ET.

• Who: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
• Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
• Time: 6:05 PM ET/3:05PM PT
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park

Conclusion

We predict the Phillies, with a 52.5% win probability, will likely beat the Brewers in Thursday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.