Atletico Madrid vs. Villareal Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Atletico Madrid vs. Villareal La Liga match on August 23, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LA LIGA
FINAL
ESP sport icon
LA LIGA
Villareal
2
:
2
Metropolitano Stadium
Atletico Madrid
Metropolitano Stadium
Atletico MadridATM
Score Summary
VillarealVIL
M. Pubill (59')
Soccer ball icon
R. Le Normand (76')
Red Card icon
G. Simeone (85')
Soccer ball icon
G. Moreno (pen.) (66')
Soccer ball icon
G. Mikautadze (pen.) (78')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Atletico Madrid
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Villareal
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    J. Gimenez (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    J. Foyth (Villarreal) cautioned
  3. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: T. Oluwaseyi replaces S. Comesana
  4. 85'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by G. Simeone, assisted by A. Baena
    2-2
  5. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: J. Gimenez replaces A. Lookman
  6. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: C. Macia replaces N. Pepe
  7. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: I. Akhomach replaces G. Mikautadze
  8. 78'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Villarreal by G. Mikautadze (pen.)
    2-1
  9. 76'
    Yellow Card
    D. Simeone (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  10. 76'
    Red Card
    R. Le Normand (Atl. Madrid) sent off with a straight red card
  11. 76'
    Yellow Card
    M. Hjulmand (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  12. 66'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Villarreal by G. Moreno (pen.)
    1-1
  13. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: M. Llorente replaces Koke
  14. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: J. Alvarez replaces M. Pubill
  15. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: P. Barrios replaces Lee Kang-In
  16. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: G. Moreno replaces A. Moleiro
  17. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: T. Buchanan replaces A. Perez
  18. 59'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by M. Pubill, assisted by G. Simeone
    0-1
  19. 54'
    Yellow Card
    A. Baena (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  20. 50'
    Yellow Card
    S. Mourino (Villarreal) cautioned
  21. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Baena replaces R. Mendoza

Atletico Madrid vs. Villareal: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Atletico Madrid vs. Villareal
  • Date: Sunday, August 23, 2026
  • Time: 11:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Metropolitano Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Atletico Madrid +100, Villareal +340, draw +320
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-110/+130)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Atletico Madrid: 52.7%
  • Villareal: 23.9%
  • Draw: 23.4%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Villareal (11.0%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Atletico Madrid vs. Villareal? Prediction & correct score

Atletico Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 52.7%.

The most likely correct score is Atletico Madrid 1-1 Villareal.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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