Brighton vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Brighton vs. Aston Villa Premier League match on August 23, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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Aston Villa
0
4
Amex Stadium
Brighton
Amex Stadium
BrightonBHA
Score Summary
Aston VillaVIL
V. Lindelof (o.g.) (8')
Soccer ball icon
M. De Cuyper (18')
Soccer ball icon
J. Hinshelwood (30')
Soccer ball icon
J. Hinshelwood (31')
Soccer ball icon
Joao Gomes (40')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Brighton
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Aston Villa
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    M. Cash (Aston Villa) cautioned
  2. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Brighton: M. Yalcouye replaces D. Gomez
  3. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: A. Garnacho replaces E. Buendia
  4. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: M. Ruggeri replaces I. Maatsen
  5. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: Alysson replaces J. McGinn
  6. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Brighton: Z. Yohanna replaces M. Wieffer
  7. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Brighton: I. Osman replaces M. De Cuyper
  8. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: L. Bogarde replaces R. Barkley
  9. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: T. Mings replaces P. Torres
  10. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Brighton: C. Kostoulas replaces J. Hinshelwood
  11. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Brighton: Costinha replaces Y. Ayari
  12. 40'
    Red Card
    Joao Gomes (Aston Villa) sent off with a straight red card
  13. 33'
    Yellow Card
    J. McGinn (Aston Villa) cautioned
  14. 31'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Brighton by J. Hinshelwood
    0-4
  15. 30'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Brighton by J. Hinshelwood, assisted by D. Gomez
    0-3
  16. 18'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Brighton by M. De Cuyper, assisted by G. Rutter
    0-2
  17. 11'
    Yellow Card
    Y. Ayari (Brighton) cautioned
  18. 9'
    Yellow Card
    Joao Gomes (Aston Villa) cautioned
  19. 9'
    Yellow Card
    P. Gross (Brighton) cautioned
  20. 8'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Brighton by V. Lindelof (o.g.)
    0-1

Brighton vs. Aston Villa: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Brighton vs. Aston Villa
  • Date: Sunday, August 23, 2026
  • Time: 9:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Amex Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Brighton +110, Aston Villa +270, draw +255
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+105/+120)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Brighton: 47.5%
  • Aston Villa: 27.3%
  • Draw: 25.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Brighton 1-1 Aston Villa (11.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Brighton vs. Aston Villa? Prediction & correct score

Brighton is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 47.5%.

The most likely correct score is Brighton 1-1 Aston Villa.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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