Texas vs. Tennessee prediction: Why Texas is favored to win in college football Week 4 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Texas vs. Tennessee, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Texas a 64.7% chance of beating Tennessee. Our predicted final score has Texas winning 30-25. According to our model, Tennessee (+5.5) has a 51.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 54.5 points has a 52.8% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Texas -5.5 (-106) / Tennessee +5.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Texas -197, Tennessee +170
• Total: Over/Under 54.5 (-112/-103)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Tennessee +5.5 @ -110 via bet365
• Moneyline: Texas @ -197 via Caesars
• Total: Over 54.5 @ -112 via DraftKings

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 54.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football matchup between Tennessee and Texas at Neyland Stadium is scheduled to begin at 12:00 PM ET.

• Who: Texas vs. Tennessee
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM ET/9:00AM PT
• Venue: Neyland Stadium

College football Week 4 promos

Make the most of Dimers' Texas vs. Tennessee predictions by exploring the Bet365 Sportsbook offer below:

Conclusion

We predict Texas, with a 64.7% win probability, will likely beat Tennessee in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.