Boise State vs. Western Michigan prediction: Why Boise State is favored to win in college football Week 4 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Boise State vs. Western Michigan, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Boise State a 68.7% chance of beating Western Michigan. Our predicted final score has Boise State winning 28-22. According to our model, Western Michigan (+7.5) has a 54.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 49.5 points has a 52.4% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Boise State -7.5 (-102) / Western Michigan +7.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Boise State -280, Western Michigan +235
• Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Western Michigan +7.5 @ -115 via bet365
• Moneyline: Western Michigan @ +235 via FanDuel
• Total: Over 49.5 @ -110 via Caesars

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Western Michigan to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football matchup between Western Michigan and Boise State at Waldo Stadium is scheduled to start at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Boise State vs. Western Michigan
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: Waldo Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Boise State, with a 68.7% win probability, will likely beat Western Michigan in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.