New Mexico vs. New Mexico State prediction favors New Mexico to win in college football Week 4 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of New Mexico vs. New Mexico State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives New Mexico an 82.2% chance of defeating New Mexico State. Our predicted final score has New Mexico winning 30-18. According to our model, New Mexico (-11.5) has a 51.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 48.5-point over/under has a 53.2% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: New Mexico -11.5 (-110) / New Mexico State +11.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: New Mexico -450, New Mexico State +400
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-105/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: New Mexico -11.5 @ -110 via Caesars
• Moneyline: New Mexico @ -450 via bet365
• Total: Over 48.5 @ -105 via bet365

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 48.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football matchup between New Mexico State and New Mexico at Aggie Memorial Stadium is scheduled to start at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: New Mexico vs. New Mexico State
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict New Mexico, with an 82.2% win probability, will likely beat New Mexico State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.