Texas State vs. San Diego State prediction favors Texas State to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Texas State vs. San Diego State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Texas State a 75.2% chance of defeating San Diego State. Our predicted final score has Texas State winning 32-24. According to our model, San Diego State (+9.5) has a 52.0% chance of covering the spread, while the 57.5-point over/under has a 51.6% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Texas State -9.5 (-105) / San Diego State +9.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Texas State -330, San Diego State +335
• Total: Over/Under 57.5 (-105/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: San Diego State +9.5 @ -108 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: San Diego State @ +335 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 57.5 @ -108 via DraftKings

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is San Diego State to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between San Diego State and Texas State at Snapdragon Stadium is scheduled to start at 10:30 PM ET.

• Who: Texas State vs. San Diego State
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 10:30 PM ET/7:30PM PT
• Venue: Snapdragon Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Texas State, with a 75.2% win probability, will likely beat San Diego State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.