Louisville vs. North Carolina State prediction favors Louisville to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Louisville vs. North Carolina State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Louisville a 58.2% chance of defeating North Carolina State. Our predicted final score has Louisville winning 30-27. According to our model, North Carolina State (+3.5) has a 52.3% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 57.5 points has a 52.5% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Louisville -3.5 (+100) / North Carolina State +3.5 (-117)
• Moneyline: Louisville -160, North Carolina State +140
• Total: Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: North Carolina State +3.5 @ -117 via Caesars
• Moneyline: North Carolina State @ +140 via bet365
• Total: Over 57.5 @ -115 via BetRivers

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is North Carolina State to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between North Carolina State and Louisville at Wayne Day Family Field at Carter-Finley Stadium is scheduled to begin at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Louisville vs. North Carolina State
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: Wayne Day Family Field at Carter-Finley Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Louisville, with a 58.2% win probability, will likely beat North Carolina State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.