Indiana State vs. South Dakota prediction favors South Dakota to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Indiana State vs. South Dakota, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives South Dakota a 92.1% chance of defeating Indiana State. Our predicted final score has South Dakota winning 39-20. According to our model, Indiana State (+18.5) has a 51.0% chance of covering the spread, while the 60.5-point over/under has a 51.3% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Indiana State +18.5 (-110) / South Dakota -18.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Indiana State +780, South Dakota -1500
• Total: Over/Under 60.5 (-113/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Indiana State +18.5 @ -110 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: South Dakota @ -1500 via bet365
• Total: Under 60.5 @ -110 via DraftKings

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 60.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football matchup between South Dakota and Indiana State at The DakotaDome is scheduled to commence at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Indiana State vs. South Dakota
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: The DakotaDome

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Conclusion

We predict South Dakota, with a 92.1% win probability, will likely beat Indiana State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.