Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction: Why Arizona State is favored to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Baylor vs. Arizona State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Arizona State a 61.8% chance of beating Baylor. Our predicted final score has Arizona State winning 26-22. According to our model, Arizona State (-3.5) has a 50.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 48.5 points has a 52.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Baylor +3.5 (-104) / Arizona State -3.5 (-114)
• Moneyline: Baylor +154, Arizona State -172
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-108/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Baylor +3.5 @ -104 via Caesars
• Moneyline: Baylor @ +154 via DraftKings
• Total: Over 48.5 @ -108 via FanDuel

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 48.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Arizona State and Baylor at Mountain America Stadium is scheduled to begin at 10:30 PM ET.

• Who: Baylor vs. Arizona State
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 10:30 PM ET/7:30PM PT
• Venue: Mountain America Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Arizona State, with a 61.8% win probability, will likely beat Baylor in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.