Navy vs. Air Force prediction: Why Air Force is favored to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Navy vs. Air Force, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Air Force a 56.2% chance of beating Navy. Our predicted final score has Air Force winning 24-22. According to our model, Navy (+3) has a 55.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 45.5 points has a 54.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Navy +3 (-107) / Air Force -3 (-105)
• Moneyline: Navy +135, Air Force -148
• Total: Over/Under 45.5 (-105/-109)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Navy +3 @ -107 via BetRivers
• Moneyline: Navy @ +135 via BetRivers
• Total: Over 45.5 @ -105 via DraftKings

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Navy +3 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Air Force and Navy at Falcon Stadium is scheduled to start at 12:00 PM ET.

• Who: Navy vs. Air Force
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM ET/9:00AM PT
• Venue: Falcon Stadium

College football Week 5 promos

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Conclusion

We predict Air Force, with a 56.2% win probability, will likely beat Navy in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.