Georgia vs. Alabama: 3 data-backed predictions that will define the biggest game of Week 6

Alabama vs. Georgia sets up a clash of undefeated  SEC titans on Saturday, October 10, as the biggest matchup in Week 6 of college football.

Both teams enter 5-0 as the No. 6 Crimson Tide host the No. 3 Bulldogs at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday night, and both teams are at risk of ending their unbeaten seasons.

A Georgia loss would put more weight on a back half that includes a home tilt with Florida, a trip to Ole Miss, and a home date with Missouri. Meanwhile, 'Bama will only face current No. 15 Tennessee and No. 10 LSU down the stretch.

Here are three college football predictions from the Dimers data for the most important game of the weekend.

1. Alabama hands Georgia its first loss of the season

The college football betting lines have Alabama as a 1.5-point favorite and -122 on the moneyline, with Georgia at +105 on the moneyline. Our 53.7% win probability and projected 28-25 final score agree with the market that Alabama is the right side to back in this one as far as probability.

But -122 odds imply about 55%, so this is about which team our data backs straight up to wins, not value on the moneyline.

Backing Alabama to win gets a fair bit of support from our player prop predictions, as Alabama’s offense under quarterback Keelon Russell has been rolling, with 870 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns and three rushing scores over his last three games.

Our model sees that production spreading across several players:

• Lotzeir Brooks over 3.5 receptions: 67.2% probability
• Kaleb Edwards over 18.5 receiving yards: 61.7% probability and a Dimers "Sweet Spot"
• Ryan Coleman-Williams to score a touchdown: 40.1% probability

Alabama has won 10 of the last 12 meetings in the series, though Georgia won last year's SEC Championship game 28-7.

2. Nate Frazier has his first multi-touchdown game since Week 1

Georgia Junior RB Nate Frazier has 5 rushing touchdowns this season, one shy of his season-long total from last year, but recently, he missed Week 4 and was limited to just two carries in the second half of Week 5.

Over those two games, his backfield mate Chauncey Bowens handled 19 carries and scored three times. Now, Bowens is out for Saturday, and Frazier is off the injury report, so the Georgia backfield should tilt back to Frazier again and the Dimers model lines up with that prediction.

In our college football props for this game, Dimers gives Frazier a 60.3% chance to score a touchdown at +110, a 12.7% edge with our "Tuddy Threat" signal, reserved for players who carry betting value *and* clear a 50% probability to score.

He tallied a trio of scores in Week 1 and this time out, we predict Frazier to score 2+ touchdowns at a 20.7% probability and +750 odds. That’s still roughly a one-in-five outcome, but +750 implies under 12%, which gives this bet an 8.9% edge.

3. The game goes over 51.5 points

These are the two highest-scoring offenses in the country. Georgia averages 51.4 points per game (first nationally) and Alabama 49.6 (second). Both teams are 5-0 to the over this season.

Georgia hasn’t scored fewer than 38 points in a game this season, and Alabama has scored at least 45 in every game. While we aren't projecting quite nearly that high of a total, we give the Over a 53.1% probability of hitting, and our projected 28-25 final score adds up to 53 points.

Defensively, Georgia ranks 12th in the country at 13.4 points allowed per game, while Alabama has been a bit softer, giving up 20.8 on average, but our model sees the offenses doing just enough to clear the number.

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Every probability and edge in this article comes from our Dimers Pro college football predictions.

A Dimers Pro subscription gives you access to every best bet and prop for every Week 6 game, including the full prop board for Georgia vs. Alabama.