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Experts Update Thunder-Grizzlies Series Prediction After Ja Morant Ruled OUT for Saturday's Game 4

Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer

Updated on Apr 26, 2025

The Memphis Grizzlies host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 of the NBA Playoffs first-round Western Conference matchups on Saturday, April 25. The Grizzlies face elimination after blowing a 29-point Game 3 lead and if they want to fight another day, they'll have to do so without star Ja Morant.

Morant was injured on a fast break after being tripped by Luguentz Dort, causing him to fall hard. Morant briefly went to the locker room, returned to shoot free throws (missing both), but did not play again. Despite leading by 29, the Grizzlies collapsed and lost as the Thunder dominated the second half and seized a 3-0 series lead.

Now downgraded to "OUT" for Game 4, our experts have updated their latest prediction to reflect the line movement at bet365 sportsbook as we look to identify the current betting value with.

For bettors and fans looking to wager on Grizzlies-Thunder, all new users can get $150 on bonus bets for placing just their first $5 bet by using the bet365 bonus code "DIMERS" ahead of tonight's game.

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Experts Update Grizzlies-Thunder Game 4 NBA Playoffs Predictions

After opening as 13-point favorites, the Thunder have moved up 1.5 points to -14.5 over the Grizzlies. Our model originally predicted the Thunder to cover the spread with a 13-point victory, but now projects an even larger margin, with a predicted final score of 118-105 in favor of Oklahoma City in the wake of Morant's absence.

Despite the increased spread, the Dimers model gives the Grizzlies a 56% probability to cover the 14.5-point number, suggesting potential value for Memphis backers with the team up against the wall.

Meanwhile, the game total opened at 220 and has risen slightly to 222.5. DimersBOT sees a 53% chance of the game going over the current number.

On the moneyline, the Thunder have strengthened to heavy -950 favorites at BetMGM, with the Grizzlies sitting at +800 underdogs. The Dimers model gives Oklahoma City an 87% win probability, translating to fair odds closer to -670. This suggests little value on either side of the moneyline.

The Thunder look primed to take care of business at FedExForum on Saturday evening.

Desmond Bane's Performance in Games Without Ja Morant

With Morant out for Game 4, we're comparing our latest player projections for the Grizzlies' Desmond Bane with their performances in previous games without him.

Desmond Bane - Bane should lead the way for the Grizzlies in Game 4, though his results without Morant on the floor are wildly inconsistent this season. He's had three games with 35+ points and just as many with fewer than 10. He's averaged 21 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.2 over 25 games without Morant, with our model projecting him near those numbers at 22/7/6.

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Grizzlies vs. Thunder Game 4 Details

Below you will find important viewing and betting information for tonight's Grizzlies vs. Thunder Game. Betting information for the other NBA playoffs games on Saturday night can be found here: NBA Predictions.

Grizzlies-Thunder: Detailed Breakdown and Viewing Information

Teams: Thunder vs. Grizzlies
Date: Saturday, April 26, 2025
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Venue: FedExForum

Current Betting Odds

Spread: Thunder favored at -14.5
Total (Over/Under): 222.5
Moneyline Odds: Thunder -950, Grizzlies +800
Dimers' Win Probabilities
Thunder: 87%
Grizzlies: 13%

View our full Grizzlies vs. Thunder Prediction, including our Best Bets, Top Props and full NBA player projections.

Grizzlies-Thunder Bet Boosts on Bet365 Sportsbook

In addition to their "Bet 5, Get $150" offer with the bet365 bonus code "DIMERS," users can also find these exciting bet boosts for Grizzlies-Thunder Game 4 on the sportsbook:

Bet Boost 1

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 35+ Points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 5+ Rebounds
Money Line - OKC Thunder
Odds Boosted from +350 to +400

Bet Boost 2

Jalen Williams: 20+ Points
Jalen Williams: 5+ Assists
Jalen Williams: 5+ Rebounds
Odds Boosted from +280 to +325

Bet Boost 3

Chet Holmgren: 10+ Rebounds
Isaiah Hartenstein: 10+ Rebounds
Money Line - OKC Thunder
Odds Boosted from +425 to +500

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