The
Memphis Grizzlies host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4
of the NBA Playoffs first-round Western Conference matchups on Saturday, April 25. The Grizzlies face elimination after blowing a 29-point Game 3 lead and if they want to fight another day, they'll have to do so without star Ja Morant.
Morant was injured on a fast break after being tripped by Luguentz Dort, causing him to fall hard. Morant briefly went to the locker room, returned to shoot free throws (missing both), but did not play again. Despite leading by 29, the Grizzlies collapsed and lost as the Thunder dominated the second half and seized a 3-0 series lead.
Now downgraded to "OUT" for Game 4, our experts have updated their latest prediction to reflect the line movement at bet365 sportsbook as we look to identify the current betting value with.
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Experts Update Grizzlies-Thunder Game 4 NBA Playoffs Predictions
After opening as 13-point favorites, the Thunder have moved up 1.5 points to -14.5 over the Grizzlies. Our model originally predicted the Thunder to cover the spread with a 13-point victory, but now projects an even larger margin, with a predicted final score of 118-105 in favor of Oklahoma City in the wake of Morant's absence.
Despite the increased spread, the Dimers model gives the Grizzlies a 56% probability to cover the 14.5-point number, suggesting potential value for Memphis backers with the team up against the wall.
Meanwhile, the game total opened at 220 and has risen slightly to 222.5. DimersBOT sees a 53% chance of the game going over the current number.
On the moneyline, the Thunder have strengthened to heavy -950 favorites at BetMGM, with the Grizzlies sitting at +800 underdogs. The Dimers model gives Oklahoma City an 87% win probability, translating to fair odds closer to -670. This suggests little value on either side of the moneyline.
The Thunder look primed to take care of business at FedExForum on Saturday evening.
With Morant out for Game 4, we're comparing our latest player projections for the Grizzlies' Desmond Bane with their performances in previous games without him.
Desmond Bane
- Bane should lead the way for the Grizzlies in Game 4, though his results without Morant on the floor are wildly inconsistent this season. He's had three games with 35+ points and just as many with fewer than 10. He's averaged 21 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.2 over 25 games without Morant, with our model projecting him near those numbers at 22/7/6.
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Grizzlies Vs. Thunder Game 4 Details
Below you will find important viewing and betting information for tonight's
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Game. Betting information for the other NBA playoffs games on Saturday night can be found here:
NBA Predictions.
- Teams: Thunder vs. Grizzlies
- Date: Saturday, April 26, 2025
- Time: 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: FedExForum
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -14.5
- Total (Over/Under): 222.5
- Moneyline Odds: Thunder -950, Grizzlies +800
- Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Thunder: 87%
- Grizzlies: 13%
View our full
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Prediction, including our Best Bets, Top Props and full
NBA player projections.
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