The 2026 NFL season opens with a tightly priced
Week 1 matchup: the Atlanta Falcons travel to Acrisure Stadium to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, September 13. Kickoff is still weeks away, but the early markets are already posted, and the
First TD Scorer
market is where the biggest Week 1 payouts live.
Atlanta's offense runs through its lead back regardless of game state, and the touchdown market has priced it accordingly. Bijan Robinson opens as the shortest number on the board to find the end zone first — and
has posted an interesting First TD Scorer price around him.
Featured Prop: Bijan Robinson First TD Scorer (+325)
on Bijan Robinson to score the first touchdown of the game against the Steelers.
- The board's clear favorite:
Bet365 prices Robinson's Anytime TD at -140, a roughly 58.3% implied chance and comfortably the shortest anytime number in the game. The book has him odds-on to find the end zone despite Atlanta starting as the underdog.
- Predictive Value:
At +325, the First TD market implies roughly a 23.5% chance Robinson opens the scoring. That reflects genuine concentration of touches rather than a speculative longshot — Atlanta's red-zone hierarchy starts and largely ends with him.
- Game script:
A 3.5-point spread and a 42.5-point total point to a low-scoring, competitive afternoon. With fewer total touchdowns expected, the opening score carries more weight, and a tight game keeps Robinson's early-down and goal-line workload intact rather than scripting Atlanta out of the run game.
Note:
Odds in this article are correct at time of publication and subject to change.
Player Props: Falcons Vs. Steelers
First & Anytime TD Scorer Odds (Bet365)
| Player |
First TD Odds |
Anytime TD Odds |
| Bijan Robinson |
+325 |
-140 |
Falcons Vs. Steelers Betting Preview
Explore the interactive widget below to discover the latest spread, over/under, and moneyline betting odds and probabilities for the Falcons-Steelers game at Acrisure Stadium.
Check out all the important details on the game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.
Game Details
The key information you need before the Falcons vs. Steelers NFL game.
- Teams:
vs.
- Date:
Sunday, September 13, 2026
- Kickoff:
1:00 p.m. EDT
- Location:
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- TV:
FOX
- NFL standings:
- NFL injuries:
Odds (Bet365)
Odds for the key markets in the Falcons-Steelers matchup.
- Spread:
Falcons +3.5 (-120), Steelers -3.5 (+100)
- Moneyline:
Falcons +140, Steelers -165
- Total:
Over/Under 42.5 (-110/-110)
The odds and lines presented here are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.
| Sportsbook |
New-user offer |
| Bet365 |
(no bonus code required) |
Bet365 Bet Boosts
Bet365 has posted two boosted Same Game Parlays for the opener:
- Pittsburgh Power (+1800, boosted from +1600):
Steelers Moneyline + Aaron Rodgers 250+ Passing Yards + DK Metcalf 70+ Receiving Yards + DK Metcalf to Score a TD. A $10 stake returns $190.
- Falcon Fever (+1100, boosted from +925):
Falcons Moneyline + Bijan Robinson to Score a TD + Drake London to Score a TD. A $10 stake returns $120.
Expert Prediction: Falcons Vs. Steelers
Utilizing state-of-the-art data analysis and advanced algorithms, the experts at
Dimers
have performed 10,000 simulations of the Falcons vs. Steelers matchup.
According to Dimers' predictive analytics model, the
Steelers are more likely to win
at Acrisure Stadium. This prediction is based on the model giving the Steelers a
63% chance
of winning the game, with a projected final score of
Steelers 24, Falcons 19.
The model also leans to the
Steelers covering the 3.5-point spread, with the projected five-point margin clearing the number. On the total, the model's projected 43-point combined score sits marginally above Bet365's posted 42.5.
These predictions and probabilities are accurate at the time of publication but are subject to potential changes.
Falcons Vs. Steelers Best Bet
Our top pick for the Falcons vs. Steelers game is to bet on the
Steelers -3.5 (+100)
at Bet365.
Dimers' model projects a five-point Pittsburgh win, which clears the number with a point and a half to spare, and taking the spread at plus money is materially better value than laying -165 on the moneyline for the same read on the game. This expert betting advice is based on world-class modeling and valuable betting intelligence, designed to help you make more informed decisions.
Final Thoughts: Falcons Vs. Steelers
Week 1 opens with one of the tighter lines on the slate. Pittsburgh hosts Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite with the moneyline at -165, and Bet365's 42.5-point total signals a book expecting a defensive, field-position afternoon at Acrisure Stadium.
The headline angle is Bijan Robinson in the touchdown market. At +325 to strike first, he is the shortest First TD price on the board — and if you'd rather back him without needing the opening score, Bet365's
-140
anytime price is the more conservative route to the same read on Atlanta's red-zone hierarchy.
Advertiser disclosure
