NFL Predictions
Machine-powered NFL predictions for moneyline, spread, and over/under bets. Click into each matchup for all probabilities and NFL computer picks for this week’s football games.
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Tired of NFL predictions and picks that frequently miss? Think you'd be better off just picking at random? What you need is a system. That's what Dimers delivers. Our NFL computer picks use machine learning and predictive modeling to assess every matchup, from Week 1 to the Super Bowl.
We use advanced data science to forecast results for the moneyline, spread, and over/under of each matchup for the weekly NFL slate. The bottom line is a clear probability for each betting market, giving you an evidence-based starting point for making quality NFL picks.
Click on "See Matchup" for the full breakdown of each NFL game this week.
How to use our NFL predictions & picks
We designed our NFL predictions to help you understand every bet in every game quickly and confidently.
Just head to the table above and follow these steps:
- Pick a matchup: Browse this week's NFL games and click into any game. Each matchup displays our moneyline prediction alongside the latest betting market prices.
- Toggle betting markets: Open the game predictions tab and switch between the point spread, over/under, and moneyline to view our pre-game probabilities for each.
- Check the pre-game probabilities: Every prediction includes a percentage out of 100, giving you a clear picture of each bet’s chances.
- Compare the displayed market: We pair our predicted probabilities with market prices, so you can see the chances and the betting market in one place.
- Read the matchup analysis: We provide a detailed breakdown of each NFL game, so you can assess each betting market in context. Each writeup includes an overview of all sportsbook odds and prediction markets, our win probabilities, the projected final score, and our overall prediction and pick.
Remember that no prediction is guaranteed, but combining facts with disciplined bankroll management gives you the best chance of long-term success.
How we generate our NFL predictions
Our NFL predictions come from two dedicated machine learning models. One predicts the expected margin between the two teams; the other predicts the expected combined points. Together they power our moneyline, spread, and total predictions and best bets.
What actually is a machine learning model, you ask? In simple terms, it's a set of prediction rules worked out from data automation instead of manually. We feed our models historical NFL data. They then find the statistical patterns and linking factors that explained how games actually turned out. Once a model is trained, it applies those patterns to upcoming NFL games.
Why do we use data this way? You can measure numbers. You can't measure a hunch. That's important for NFL betting. No model can predict the future with certainty, but a numbers-first approach can be tested, measured, and refined over time.
What makes our NFL prediction models different?
We build our pregame predictions for the NFL in-house. And we obsess over the details.
- Rebuilt power rankings: Our proprietary power rankings go beyond wins, losses, and raw past performance, accounting for factors such as opponent quality and quarterback context.
- A better understanding of quarterbacks: Our data accounts for how each quarterback is expected to play, including whether they represent an upgrade or downgrade from recent games, with an improved approach to rookie quarterbacks.
- Meaningful performance metrics: Offensive and defensive efficiency metrics are adjusted for garbage-time situations, helping reduce the influence of performance after the competitive outcome has largely been decided.
- Different models for different outcomes: Our two models use the same underlying information differently to predict the expected margin between the two teams and the expected combined points. Those outputs power our moneyline, spread, and total predictions.
Why trust our NFL prediction data model?
Our approach to NFL pregame predictions combines modern machine learning, extensive data, and rigorous testing into a system developed specifically for successful betting.
- Built and refined in-house: Our team of data scientists and sports experts blueprint, build, test, and refines the NFL pregame model in-house throughout the offseason.
- More information, used more intelligently: More than 100 data points contribute to every NFL prediction. Rather than treating every piece of information equally, our models learn how different factors relate to the specific outcome being predicted.
- Extensively tested: We demoed thousands of modelling approaches before selecting the final framework, then backtested extensively against historical games. The model has shown improved results against the internal benchmarks and minimum performance standards.
Unlock the full power of our NFL predictions with Dimers Pro
Dimers Pro unlocks premium NFL betting tools that go beyond our pre-game predictions.
Subscribers get unlimited access to tools designed to help you find betting value throughout the season.
- Real-time research tools: Access on desktop or the native mobile app.
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Your subscription covers the entire NFL and college football seasons and also includes access to our tools and picks across other major sports, including MLB and NBA.
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Explore our full suite of NFL betting tools
Our NFL predictions and picks are just the start. Dimers offers a full lineup of tools designed to help you bet like a pro all season long:
- NFL Best Bets: Top daily +EV NFL plays based on probability and price.
- NFL Prop Bets: Best daily NFL player props powered by projections and matchup data.
- NFL Player Projections: Full NFL player stats projections for picking your own props.
- NFL Trends: Track NFL player hot and cold streaks to help with prop betting.
- NFL Parlays: Generate automatic NFL parlays with high-upside multi-legs.
- NFL Live Bets: Follow live NFL scores and betting probabilities as games unfold.
- NFL Futures: Probabilities and odds for long-term NFL outright bets.
- NFL Odds: Compare all NFL lines from major sportsbooks with instant odds shopping.
- NFL News: Daily NFL match previews and exclusive picks from our experts.
Unlock unlimited access to all our betting tools by joining Dimers Pro.
New to sports betting? Learn the ropes with our how to bet on the NFL guide.
Responsible gambling for NFL
Great quarterbacks know when to stick with the play, and the Dimers playbook is all about helping bettors stay sharp and responsible. We recommend setting firm deposit and wager limits to keep control of your game while understanding the risks that come with betting. If you or someone close to you is facing gambling challenges, our dedicated responsible gambling resources are here to provide help and direction.
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Your Questions Answered
What are NFL computer picks?
NFL computer picks are predictions generated by a statistical or machine learning model rather than an individual analyst. Dimers uses two machine learning models to generate objectively based NFL computer picks. Our data model assesses each matchup using more than 100 informational inputs to produce probabilities for the moneyline, spread, and total.
What is the difference between computer picks and expert picks for the NFL?
Our NFL computer picks are objective selections generated using a consistent machine-learning modeling process. Expert picks are subjective takes based on an individual analyst’s research, experience, and judgment.
A computer system like Dimers’ evaluates every NFL matchup objectively using the same underlying framework across every game. Expert picks are opinion-based and may incorporate factors that are more difficult to quantify.
How do Dimers' NFL computer picks work?
Dimers’ NFL predictions come from two dedicated machine learning models. They evaluate more than 100 data points for each matchup, including team strength, quarterback performance, efficiency, pace, form, rest, travel, venue, and game-specific variables. The models use that information to predict the expected margin of victory and total points, which then powers our moneyline, spread, and total predictions.
How accurate are NFL computer picks?
No NFL model can predict every game correctly, and short-term results can vary. Model performance is better assessed across a large sample of games and over multiple seasons. Dimers’ NFL computer picks have delivered positive strike rates and ROI results across multiple seasons.
How do NFL computer picks compare with betting odds and prediction markets?
NFL computer picks provide a model-generated probability, while sportsbook odds and prediction market prices provide the rate available for a particular outcome. Comparing the two can show where the model's probability differs from the probability implied by the market. These differences may highlight potential value, although they don't guarantee a winning bet. Dimers compares NFL bets against the strongest prices daily in our NFL Best Bets.
How often are NFL predictions updated?
NFL predictions can change as new information becomes available throughout the week. Factors such as quarterback availability, team news, weather, and other matchup conditions can affect the model's assessment. Check the latest matchup page for the current prediction and probability.
Are NFL computer picks guaranteed to win?
NFL computer picks are probabilities, not guarantees. Even an outcome given a high probability can fail to occur. The purpose of our calculations is to provide a consistent, measurable way to assess uncertainty, not eliminate it.
What are this week's NFL predictions?
Our latest NFL predictions are displayed in the matchup table above. You can view our moneyline, spread, and total predictions for every game on this week's slate, along with betting probabilities and available market prices.
What is a machine learning model?
A machine learning model learns patterns and relationships from historical data rather than relying solely on a fixed set of manually programmed rules. For NFL predictions, machine learning allows our models to evaluate many different factors together and learn how those factors relate to specific results.
What data does the NFL model use?
Dimers’ NFL model evaluates more than 100 data points for every matchup. These include team form, power rankings, quarterback performance, offensive and defensive efficiency, pace, rest, travel, venue, and game-specific variables.