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How Do MMA/UFC Odds Work?
Most of us have seen sports odds before and understand why one UFC fighter is favored and the other is a dog, but let's take a look at how the odds work.
MMA betting has many popular options, particularly future bets and live betting. There are prop bets too, which allow you to wager on almost anything which can occur in a UFC bout.
Vegas usually sets the standard and determines MMA odds for sportsbooks across the United States, but there are several factors that go into setting the odds that can differ from more conventional sports betting markets. Want to know why it's so different? Well, we've go all of the answers here for you, right now!
How are MMA odds determined?
The function of MMA odds making isn’t to truly represent the probability of an outcome occurring. Vegas and sportsbooks actually put forth certain odds to make a profit and in the hopes of attracting bettors to both sides (either fighter etc). For those learning how to bet on MMA, understanding the mechanics behind odds is very important.
Ultimately, oddsmakers work to protect sportsbooks from big losses.
That’s why sportsbooks hate it when a heavy favorite wins—they lose a lot of money. UFC and MMA betting odds aren’t based on gut feelings or wild guesses.
Instead, statisticians and mathematicians carefully calculate the odds you see on sportsbooks. For live matches, MMA live betting explained shows how odds change in real-time based on what happens in the fight.
For future bets, like predicting the next UFC champion, oddsmakers consider past performances, injuries, stats, and even fighters’ strengths and weaknesses. It’s a mix of data, algorithms, and some very smart calculations.
In the case of MMA future bets — like 2021 UFC middleweight champion — odds makers will look at previous fights, form, injuries, weather forecasts, even a fighter’s strengths and weaknesses to determine the odds. It isn’t that simple of course, algorithms and other nerdy stuff go into it, but this gives you an idea.
MORE: Best Betting Strategies for UFC
Why are MMA odds not real probabilities?
Like any business, sportsbooks want to make a profit. They don’t sell clothes or shoes, but they do sell odds to you; the bettor. How do they profit? Let’s look at the below.
Example:
UFC 257 Lightweight Main Event
| Conor McGregor -250 (implied probability of 71.43%) | Dustin Poirier +200 (implied probability = 33.33%) |
|---|
For all you super UFC nerds out there, those percentages don’t add up. Well, they do, just not to 100% (we had to use a calculator 😬). The sum of the two percentages equals 104.76%. So, how can a UFC fight have an implied probability of 104%?
It can’t, obviously... the extra 4% is the profit margin the sportsbook is taking home. With such a strategy, implemented across all sports betting all across the world, this is how sportsbook inevitably make their profits over time.
Favorites lose = Sportsbooks win
When there’s a big upset during an MMA bout, bookmakers rejoice. This is because most of the money is heavily poured on the favorite, meaning the sportsbook takes all of it home. Big favorites losing is a sportsbooks’ golden goose.
Now that you know where odds come from, find the best MMA and UFC odds in America with Dimers. We have exclusive promo codes for each of the biggest and most secure sportsbooks.
MORE: How do Risk-Bonus Bets Work?
Why do sportsbooks have similar odds?
Sports betting is going nuts on a global scale. Surprisingly, UFC betting is far more advanced in places like Australia, United Kingdom and Asia, while it is just getting started in America, Vegas aside. Many bettors who are looking to look out for new terms may perhaps wonder, "what does grand salami mean?" - a phrase which is more commonly associated with other sports but reflective of how wide and intriguing sports betting can actually be.
Due to the globalization of UFC betting it isn’t uncommon for sportsbooks to simply syndicate the odds of other books. This method is cost effective, quick to update, keeps the book's odds competitive and saves on all the data and betting analytics research.
We don’t know which books copy others but we do know how you can find the best odds for all the big sports in the United States.
How to take advantage of MMA odds
Sportsbooks look to make money off your bets, and set odds in such a way to favor their interests. So, how do we fight back and win money from sports betting?
The answer is simple — take advantage of the edge.
What is the edge, you ask?
This is where the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the sportsbook’s odds. In other words, our predictive analytics model suggests an MMA fighter has a much better chance of winning than the sportsbooks think. Just remember that even the best MMA strategy will have its limits, and this is why it’s smart to check out our responsible gambling page before you bet on the fighting action.
Taking these bets gives you a better chance of being a successful gambler long-term. Of course, the higher the edge, the better. While you’re not guaranteed a W, taking picks with an edge gives you a greater chance of being profitable well into the future. This is super important when trying to be a successful MMA bettor.
For every major sports match including UFC, NFL, College sports, NBA and more, Dimers has the edge and exclusive promotional codes waiting for you.
MORE: How to use Dimers Bet Hub
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