How Do English Premier League Odds Work?
Most of us have seen sports odds before and understand why a Premier League team is favored against the dog — particularly if Manchester City are playing!
Premier League betting has many popular options, particularly the spread, moneyline and over/under. There are prop bets too, which allow you to wager on almost anything which can occur within a Premier League match, including key player performance stats.
All of the answers are here for you, right now!
How are EPL odds determined?
The function of EPL odds making isn’t to truly represent the probability of an outcome occurring. The aim is to put forth certain odds to make a profit, while also attract bettors on both sides (either team, etc.).
Ultimately oddsmakers are in cahoots with sportsbooks. They are trying to reduce the risk of sportsbooks losing big.
That’s why books hate when a big favorite wins, because they lose heavily. Premier League betting odds certainly aren’t determined on the gut feel of a sports predicting genius.
Sports statisticians, analysts and mathematicians are heavily involved in the EPL odds you see on a sportsbook’s site and app. The X’s and O’s of soccer odds comes from examination of the wider betting market, statistics and data.
In the case of EPL moneyline and spread bets, odds makers will look at previous matchups, form, injuries, teams’ strengths and weaknesses, even weather forecasts to determine the odds. It isn’t that simple of course, algorithms and other nerdy stuff go into it, but this gives you an idea.
In other words, it’s not too different to Dimers’ predictive analytics model where 10,000 simulations of every Premier League game are conducted -- based on the variables above -- all to give you an unrivalled edge before you make that winning play.
Why are EPL odds not real probabilities?
Like any business, sportsbooks want to make a profit. They don’t sell whistles and widgets, but they do sell odds to you, the bettor. How do they profit? Let’s look below.
- Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC @ Etihad Stadium
- Manchester City -250 (implied probability of 71.43%)
- Chelsea +200 (implied probability = 33.33%)
For the quick adders, you'll notice those percentages don’t add up to 100%. Well, they still add up, to 104.76%. How can an EPL game have an implied probability of 104%?!
Of course, in reality it can't. The extra 4% is the profit margin this sportsbook is taking home. With such a strategy — commonly implemented across America— a book will make a profit over time.
Favorites loss = Sportsbook win
When there’s a big upset in the English Premier League, bookmakers rejoice. This is because most of the money is heavily poured on the favorite, meaning the sportsbook takes all of it home. Big favorites losing is a sportsbook’s golden goose.
Now that you know where they come from, find the best Premier League odds in America with Dimers. We have exclusive promo codes for each of the biggest and most secure sportsbooks. If you’re wanting to succeed at Premier League betting, check out our EPL Bet Hub.
Why do sportsbooks have similar odds?
Sports betting is going gangbusters on a global scale. Surprisingly, soccer betting is far more advanced in places like Australia, the United Kingdom and Asia, while it is just getting started in America, Vegas aside.
Due to the globalization of Premier League betting it isn’t uncommon for sportsbooks to simply copy the odds of other books. This method is cost effective and they end up with the same odds without all the data and betting analytics research.
We don’t know which books copy others but we do know how you can find the best odds for every major sport in the United States.
How to take advantage of EPL odds
Sportsbooks look to make money off your bets, and set odds in such a way to favor their interests. So, how do we fight back and win money from sports betting?
The answer is simple — take advantage of the edge. What is the edge, you ask?
This is where the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the sportsbook’s odds. In other words, our predictive analytics model suggests a soccer team/player has a much better chance of winning than the sportsbooks think!
Taking these bets gives you a better chance of being a successful gambler long-term. Of course, the higher the edge, the better. While you’re not guaranteed a W, taking picks with an edge gives you a greater chance of being profitable well into the future. This is super important when trying to become a successful EPL bettor.
For every major sports match including EPL, NFL, NBA and more, Dimers has the edge and exclusive promotional codes waiting for you.