Colts vs. Chiefs prediction favors Kansas City to win ‘SNF’ Week 2 [2026]

NFL Week 2 action continues on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET as the Indianapolis Colts take on the favored Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Chiefs as the most likely winner in this Colts vs. Chiefs prediction.

This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Colts vs. Chiefs prediction and odds

Since our Colts-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Colts and Chiefs, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Chiefs a 68.9% chance of beating the Colts in Week 2 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 25-19.

Key factors favoring the Chiefs:

• Kansas City Chiefs Power Rankings
• Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Efficiency
• Indianapolis Colts Defensive Efficiency

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Colts and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 46.5 points has a 52.5% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Indianapolis Colts Form
• Weather / Conditions

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 2 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Colts +6.5 (+100) / Chiefs -6.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Colts +270, Chiefs -270
• Total: Over/Under 46.5 (+104/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Colts +6.5 @ +100 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Colts @ 27¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Under 46.5 @ 51¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Colts to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Colts vs. Chiefs TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Colts vs. Chiefs?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Kenneth Walker is most likely to score an anytime TD in Colts vs. Chiefs.

Our projections give Walker a 56.5% chance of scoring a TD at Arrowhead Stadium, while the running back is a 17.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 55.0% probability
• Tyler Warren (TE): 27.5%
• Alec Pierce (WR): 26.2%
• Josh Downs (WR): 22.3%
• Keenan Allen (WR): 17.0%

Kansas City Chiefs

• Kenneth Walker (RB): 56.5% prob.
• Rashee Rice (WR): 32.6%
• Travis Kelce (TE): 26.7%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 24.1%
• Patrick Mahomes (QB): 18.4%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 14.3% prob.
• Tyler Warren (TE): 5.8%
• Alec Pierce (WR): 5.5%
• Josh Downs (WR): 4.5%
• Keenan Allen (WR): 3.4%

Kansas City Chiefs

• Kenneth Walker (RB): 17.0% prob.
• Rashee Rice (WR): 8.1%
• Travis Kelce (TE): 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 5.6%
• Patrick Mahomes (QB): 4.2%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Colts and Chiefs. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 2 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Colts' Daniel Jones is projected for 222 passing yards. The Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for 228 yards.

Colts rushing

• Jonathan Taylor: 82 yds
• Daniel Jones: 13 yds
• Seth McGowan: 12 yds

Chiefs rushing

• Kenneth Walker: 86 yds
• Patrick Mahomes: 21 yds
• Emmett Johnson: 17 yds

Colts receiving

• Alec Pierce: 50 yds
• Josh Downs: 47 yds
• Tyler Warren: 46 yds
• Keenan Allen: 37 yds
• Jonathan Taylor: 20 yds

Chiefs receiving

• Rashee Rice: 53 yds
• Xavier Worthy: 45 yds
• Travis Kelce: 44 yds
• Kenneth Walker: 24 yds
• Tyquan Thornton: 23 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 2 matchup between the Chiefs and Colts at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:20 PM ET.

• Who: Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
• Time: 8:20 PM ET/5:20PM PT
• Venue: Arrowhead Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 68.9% win probability, will likely beat the Colts in Week 2 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.