Bills vs. Vikings Prediction: Best Offense, Best Defense and Our Kalshi Trade for Monday Night Football

Two 6-1 teams. The NFL's highest-scoring offense against its stingiest defense. And one of them just lost its starting quarterback.

Josh Allen's Bills roll into U.S. Bank Stadium averaging 33.3 points per game, fresh off a 36-10 win over the Ravens. The Vikings have allowed just 13.3 points per game, the fewest in the league, and no team has given up fewer over a full season since the 2006 Ravens.

But Minnesota's offense hasn't held up its end of the deal. The Vikings have scored only 12 touchdowns all season, and now they'll be without Kyler Murray, who was ruled out with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Carson Wentz gets the start.

Something has to give on Monday night, and our NFL predictions model thinks it's the Minnesota defense. It gives Buffalo a 50.0% chance to win by four or more points. Kalshi has it at 46c.

Dimers trade of the night, via Kalshi

Prices correct at time of publishing.

Prices, model output and everything else can be found in our Bills vs. Vikings prediction hub.

Who wins Bills vs. Vikings on Monday Night Football?

Kalshi has the Bills favored at 62c to win outright, and our model is right there with them at 62.3%. The Vikings are 39c on Kalshi against our 37.7%.

So the market and our model agree on the winner. Where we split is the margin.

Buying Yes on "Buffalo wins by over 3.5 points" costs 46c, which means Kalshi has the Bills covering less than half the time. Our model makes it a coin flip at 50.0%, a 4.0% edge. Taking the Vikings +3.5 means buying No at 55c, against our 50.0%.

The total leans the same way. Our model has Over 44 landing 55.6% of the time, and Over 44.5 costs 50c on Kalshi. Even against the league's best defense, the numbers expect points.

Buffalo is coming off that 36-10 win over Baltimore, while Minnesota lost its unbeaten record in a 19-15 loss to Detroit. You can compare every number across the books on our NFL odds page.

Can the NFL's best defense slow down the Bills?

On paper, this is the toughest test the Bills' offense has seen all season. But the Detroit loss showed where the cracks are.

The Lions kept Minnesota's defense on the field for 35 minutes and 68 plays, and their success on the ground did most of the damage. The Vikings also allow 5.3 yards per carry to running backs after halftime.

That's the blueprint Buffalo is built to follow. James Cook is set to be a big part of the plan, according to the Buffalo News, and our model projects him for 89 rushing yards. His 80+ rushing yards market is 53c on Kalshi.

Then there's the MVP favorite. Our model projects Allen for 237 passing yards and another 37 on the ground, with a 51.3% chance to find the end zone himself.

One thing to watch: left tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs) and left guard Alec Anderson (ankle) are both questionable at time of publishing, and Minnesota's pass rush gets home more often than any unit in the league. If both suit up, Buffalo has everything it needs. If not, keeping Allen upright becomes the Vikings' best path to keeping this close.

Josh Allen becomes the Bills all-time leader in TD passes (259) with Jim Kelly in attendance 👏 BALvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+ Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/k62VFqausS

— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2026

How much does losing Kyler Murray hurt the Vikings?

Wentz's start marks the 14th time Minnesota has switched quarterbacks during a season since Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles in 2023. Head coach Kevin O'Connell called Murray's injury week-to-week, and the team didn't want to risk making it worse.

The veteran backup has been here before. Since signing in August 2025, Wentz has started six games and played most of a seventh, and Minnesota went 4-3 in those games. He completed 63.9% of his passes for 1,492 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions.

The problem is what happens when the pocket collapses. Wentz has taken sacks on 12.8% of his dropbacks in his two games this season, more than double the league average.

And the offense wasn't exactly humming before Murray got hurt. The Vikings' 12 touchdowns are tied for the fewest by any team through a 6-1 start in the last 90 years, and Murray's 44.7 QBR ranked 26th out of 30 qualified quarterbacks. Receiver Jauan Jennings (calf) has also been ruled out.

O'Connell wants to lean on the run, calling designed runs on 42% of plays, but Minnesota ranks 29th in rushing EPA. Buffalo's run defense ranks 25th, so there's an opening, but the Vikings haven't shown they can take advantage of one. Our model projects Wentz for 213 passing yards, a tough number to keep pace with Allen.

Can the Bills take away Justin Jefferson?

If there's a reason for Vikings fans to feel better about Wentz, it's his connection with Jefferson. In the seven games Wentz has started or played most of in Minnesota, Jefferson has 44 catches for 615 yards and two touchdowns. Wentz has made it clear he plans to keep feeding him on Monday.

Buffalo's defense has made a habit of taking away the other team's best weapon, though. Over the past two weeks, Jim Leonhard's unit held Brock Bowers to a season-low four catches and kept Zay Flowers without a reception for the first time in his career. Cornerback Christian Benford was in the middle of both performances, and he's the name to watch opposite Jefferson.

Our model still expects the former LSU star to get his, projecting 81 receiving yards and giving him a 40.2% chance to score, the best of any Viking. But one receiver can't carry an offense that has struggled to find the end zone all season. That's why the Bills are our side.

For more of the week's top plays, check out our NFL props and player projections, our full list of NFL best bets, or unlock every model edge with Dimers Pro.

Kalshi promo code DIMERS: Trade $25, get $55

New to Kalshi? Use promo code DIMERS when you sign up, and get $55 in bonus credit once you make a qualifying trade of at least $25.

• Bonus: $55 in bonus funds
• Deposit required: $25 minimum first deposit
• Trading requirement: $25 in trades within 7 days of opening the account
• Total starting balance: $80
• Code: DIMERS
• Where it goes: The promo/referral field at registration
• Eligibility: New Kalshi accounts only; one per user; available in California and Georgia; not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ or OH
• Active as of: November 8, 2026
• Bonus expiry: Use the $55 within 7 days of it being credited
• Usage: Valid on all open Kalshi odds and prediction markets: MLB, NFL, college football, politics, economics, and global events
• Withdrawal: Bonus funds must be traded before any resulting funds can be withdrawn; review current terms at Kalshi.com

Claim the Kalshi promo code DIMERS and your $55 bonus here.

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at http://kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Bills vs. Vikings FAQ

What is the best Kalshi trade for Bills vs. Vikings on Monday Night Football?Our trade of the night is the Bills -3.5, buying Yes on "Buffalo wins by over 3.5 points" at 46c. Our model makes it 50.0%.

What is the Bills vs. Vikings prediction?Our model gives the Bills a 62.3% chance to win and a 50.0% chance to cover -3.5.

What are the Bills vs. Vikings odds on Kalshi?At time of publishing, Buffalo is 62c to win and Minnesota is 39c. Buffalo to win by over 3.5 points is 46c, and Over 44.5 total points is 50c.

Who is starting at quarterback for the Vikings against the Bills?Carson Wentz. Kyler Murray was ruled out with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, making this the 14th time Minnesota has changed quarterbacks during a season since Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles in 2023.

Will Justin Jefferson score a touchdown against the Bills?Our model gives Jefferson a 40.2% chance to score, the highest of any Vikings player, compared with 39c on Kalshi. He is projected for 81 receiving yards.

Can I sell a Kalshi position before the game ends?Yes. You can sell a position at the current market price at any point before the market settles, whether you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss. Our Kalshi review covers how the platform works.