Predictive Analytics Model Likes Justin Thomas or Rory McIlroy to Win 2022 US Open Golf

Amidst the buzz and furor over LIV golf, the start-up golf league fronted by Greg Norman and financed by the Saudi government, the third Major of the year, the 122nd US Open will be played just outside of Boston at a course so old that it is simply known as ‘The County Club'.

It’s a shame that the LIV talk is dominating the golf narrative ahead of this 122nd US Open because this championship has all the markings of a classic.

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"Y'all are throwing a black cloud over the U.S. Open, and I think that sucks."

Brooks Koepka was getting a little annoyed with all the questions about the LIV Golf Series. pic.twitter.com/efRtTldE0D

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 14, 2022

With Rory Mcilroy coming off a win at the RBC Canadian Open last week, Justin Thomas looking to add a second Major to his triumphs, and Scottie Scheffler having a career year, the field is deep and talented, playing a course that will deeply and brutally test all of their skills. A notorious US Open trademark is a course with deep rough, finely cut greens, outrageous pin placements that all lead to high, high scores.

📍 The Country Club in Brookline, Mass.

It's one of the oldest country clubs in the U.S.

Members built the first three holes in 1893.

In 2022 it hosts its fourth U.S. Open Championship.

📸: @USGA pic.twitter.com/2byfwNEAb0

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 14, 2022

So, let’s talk about some betting favorites, some sleepers, and some names to throw some cash down on this week at the Country Club in Brookline.  

Dimers.com runs more than 10,000 simulations for every sporting event we ask it to, and the top four players our DimersBOT has identified are all smart picks to win.

Justin Thomas (+1200) with a predicted win probability of 7.7% has been identified as the second favorite by DimersBOT, coming off his improbable rally to win the PGA Championship back in May.

It is extremely difficult to repeat in major tournaments (it has only been done 19 times by 13 different golfers—a rate of 6.4 %), so history is not on Thomas’ side. But he should surely be in contention through to Sunday, so picking him to finish Top 10 is a smart play even if you don’t like him to hoist back-to-back major trophies.

Rory McIlroy doesn’t believe LIV Golf Series can achieve the same atmosphere as PGA TOUR events. pic.twitter.com/9v4A7Xo5bm

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 14, 2022

Right ahead of Thomas, according to DimersBOT, is Rory McIlroy (+1100) with a win percentage of 8.4% and the most likely winner in the eyes of the BOT.

McIlroy is also my pick to win the Open, and he’s the betting favorite as well. I picked him to win the PGA Championship, too, and after his 70 in Round 1, I was ready to count my winnings and head to Vegas.

It didn’t quite work out like I had planned, but he still finished in 8th place, only 3 shots off the lead, so even though it didn’t feel like he was in contention on Sunday, he was right there.

Rounding out the top 4 Dimers picks are Scottie Scheffler (+1400) with a 5.4% chance of winning and the Big Spaniard, Jon Rahm, also coming in at +1400 with a slightly better 5.6% chance of winning the trophy come Sunday.

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Scheffler, The Masters champ, is well on his way to possible Golfer of the Year honors and Rahm already has a US Open title under his belt, so you can’t go wrong throwing some cash on any one of those four, but let’s look at some value picks that can make some noise. 

It’s hard not to want to lay down some wagers on Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800), seeing as though he won at The Country Club as an amateur in 2013, in addition to his stellar play this year.

He was close at the PGA Championship and should be close again here. I also like Tony Finau (+3300) this week. Even though his wins are few and far between, Finau is a major talent just waiting for his breakthrough and was in contention a week ago.

Finally, it’s not a matter of will Will Zalatoris (+2500) win a major, but when will Will win (whew…got all that?). Bottom line:  it’s going to happen eventually; why not this week?

2022 US Open Dark Horses

Hideki Matsuyma (+4000) is as much of a lock to make the cut as anyone else in the field, having done so in 8 straight majors.

Cameron Young (+5000) and sweet-swinging Davis Riley (+6600) both had good showings at the PGA championship, and I see them continuing and contending here as well.

Tommy Fleetwood (+5000) is someone who always seems to be lurking at Majors and big events, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays well this week.

After throwing first pitch at Tuesday’s @RedSox game, New England native @Keegan_Bradley rolls into a practice round @usopengolf at Brookline. pic.twitter.com/LbN5yHNFHQ

— Kevin Prise (@PGATOURKevin) June 15, 2022

A couple of other names you can’t count out: Brooks Koepka (+4000), still formidable when on and fully engaged and Cameron Smith (+2200). If Smith can drive it straight this week, he’s as good as anyone. For good measure, let’s throw in Keegan Bradley, at a whopping +10000, not only for his New England roots but his resurgent play of late as well. 

Players to avoid at the 2022 US Open

Phil Mickelson (too old and distracted); Tyrell Hatton (always angry about something); Dustin Johnson (just ready to get back to LIV golf and fat paychecks).

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2022 US Open Odds

Rory McIlroy +1000

Justin Thomas +1100

Jon Rahm +1300

Scottie Scheffler +1400

Patrick Cantlay +2000

Xander Schauffele +2000

Cameron Smith +2200

Will Zalatoris +2500

Jordan Spieth +2500

Shane Lowery +2500

Sam Burns +2800

Collin Morikawa +3000

Matthew Fitzpatrick +3000

Joaquin Niemann +3500

Viktor Hovland +3500

Tony Finau +3500

Dustin Johnson +3500

Daniel Berger +4000

Louis Oosthuizen +4000

Brooks Koepka +4000

HIdeki Matsuyama +4000

Sungiae Im +4000

You can get the best odds on Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas or anyone else ➡️ here ⬅️ with DraftKings Sportsbook.

2022 US Open odds and probabilities correct at the time of publishing.