NFL Week 13: Bills vs. Patriots Player Props & Predictions, Thursday December 1, 2022

Last updated: Dec 21, 2023, 6:08PM | Published: Nov 29, 2022, 2:45PM

It's Week 13 Thursday Night Football between the Bills and the Patriots and we've got a number of projected player performances for you to bet on. Sink your teeth into everything from projected first touchdown scorers at Gillette Stadium, down to rushing yards and receiving yards. Our predictive analytics model, known as DimersBOT, has run over 10,000 simulations of this NFL Week 13 game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots, where we have the Bills registering a win. Based on our Bills-Patriots predictions, it also looks as though Buffalo's Stefon Diggs is in for a big night, with the Bills' WR featuring heavily in our projections, listed in more detail below.

DraftKings Bet $5, Win $150 promo is one of the best out there. If you're a new DKs customer you can claim it here.

NFL Week 13 Props: Bills vs. Patriots

Who will score the first touchdown in Bills vs. Patriots? Well, the latest data is in.

Listed below are the most likely first touchdown and most likely anytime touchdown scorers for both the Bills and Patriots, as well as player stat projections.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you select the best prop picks for Thursday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Buffalo's Stefon Diggs is most likely to score the first touchdown in Bills vs. Patriots.

DimersBOT gives Diggs a 12.2% chance of scoring the first TD at Gillette Stadium, while the Bills WR is a 47.9% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

Scroll down for our full list of first and anytime TD scorer probabilities.

Bills vs. Patriots Touchdown Props

First Touchdown

PLAYER	FIRST TOUCHDOWN
Stefon Diggs	12.9% probability
R. Stevenson	10.5% probability
Josh Allen	8.2% probability
Gabe Davis	8.1% probability
Devin Singletary	6.8% probability
Jakobi Meyers	6.6% probability
Hunter Henry	5.6% probability
Dawson Knox	5.4% probability
Tyquan Thornton	4.1% probability

Anytime Touchdown

PLAYER	ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Stefon Diggs	47.9% probability
R. Stevenson	43.0% probability
Gabe Davis	34.8% probability
Josh Allen	34.1% probability
Devin Singletary	31.2% probability
Jakobi Meyers	29.4% probability
Hunter Henry	25.9% probability
Dawson Knox	23.1% probability
DeVante Parker	22.2% probability
Tyquan Thornton	19.7% probability

For NFL prop bets from EVERY game being played this week, check out our NFL Prop Bets generator to find yourself today's best plays.

Bills at Patriots Player Prop Predictions

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 256 passing yards, while the Patriots' Mac Jones is expected to throw for 204 yards.

Look for the 🔥 below, as that indicates a spot where DimersBOT has found value against the sportsbooks. To make things easy for you, we even list the best player props bets to place, below.

Bills Starting QB

Josh Allen: 256 yards

Patriots Starting QB

Mac Jones: 204 yards 🔥

Bills Rushing

Devin Singletary: 53 yards
Josh Allen: 43 yards
James Cook: 13 yards

Patriots Rushing

Rhamondre Stevenson: 68 yards
Kevin Harris: 12 yards
Mac Jones: 11 yards

Bills Receiving

Stefon Diggs: 87 yards
Gabe Davis: 52 yards
Dawson Knox: 29 yards 🔥
Isaiah McKenzie: 23 yards
Devin Singletary: 20 yards 🔥

Patriots Receiving

Jakobi Meyers: 49 yards
DeVante Parker: 37 yards
Rhamondre Stevenson: 36 yards 🔥
Hunter Henry: 32 projected yards
Tyquan Thornton: 30 projected yards

NFL Player Prop Bets - Bills vs. Patriots

🔥 Rhamondre Stevenson Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

As you can see above, our predictive analytics model has Stevenson down for only 36 receiving yards on Thursday night, so at odds of -125 we are betting his UNDER and getting an edge of 19.4% with PointsBet Sportsbook, where new customers can get 4x risk-free $100 bets to use on whatever they want, right here.

🔥 Devin Singletary Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Following over 10,000 different simulations of this Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bills and the Patriots we've projected that the receiving yards line of 10.5 for Devin Singletary is far too low. We have the Bills man down for a minimum of 20, so betting his OVER (-114) with DraftKings Sportsbook is the play, giving us an edge of 13.4% vs. the sportsbook. New DraftKings customers can score $150 in free bets from just a $5 wager here.

🔥 Mac Jones Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The super computer has Pats QB Mac Jones down to throw for just 204 yards on Thursday night, well short of the 245.5 yards line set by PointsBet Sportsbook. Therefore, the bet here is Mac Jones UNDER 245.5 yards (-115) with PointsBet, where those 4x risk-free $100 bets are waiting for you, here.

🔥 Dawson Knox Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

DimersBOT is fading Dawson Knox in TNF too, projecting just 29 receiving yards from the Bills man vs. his line of 33.5. We can bet is UNDER over at Caesars Sportsbook with a 12.6% edge and a probability of 66.1%. If you've not tried Caesars yet, new customers can score a risk-free first bet up to $1250 by tapping here.

Nick Slade

Chief Content Officer

Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience as a sports and betting expert, serves as the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, where he steers the editorial and digital content strategy for leading platforms like Dimers.com, Stats Insider and Gambling Today. Specializing in soccer, Nick brings a global perspective to his coverage of the sport, including detailed analyses of MLS games. He also contributes to NHL content through game previews, best bets, and props, and lends his expertise to crafting NBA first basket betting content.

With a robust background as a journalist and broadcaster, Nick has been a trusted voice on major networks and channels such as Fox Sports, WCBV-TV Boston, ESPN, ABC, and others. His profound understanding of sports and betting dynamics has made him a sought-after authority in the wagering and gambling industries.

On the socials