New Orleans Saints 2022 Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

Last updated: Dec 21, 2023, 12:28PM | Published: Jul 22, 2022, 2:52PM

The 2022 NFL season is firmly on the horizon and over the coming weeks the Dimers crew will break down the chances of each and every team, all vying for Super Bowl 57 glory in Glendale, Arizona come February.

Let's take a look at the key factors to consider when betting on the New Orleans Saints in 2022.

The books put the Saints Over/Under win total at 8.5 this season, and either they are lazy or just not paying attention, as the Saints won nine games last year with four different quarterbacks, and one of those starts was from rookie Ian Book, who didn’t even take any reps with the first team the week before his debut on Monday Night Football. With more consistent quarterback play, the Saints could win the NFC South and amass 10 wins or more in the process.

New Orleans Saints Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

New Orleans Saints

2021 Record: 9-8, 2nd in NFC South (Missed Playoffs)
2021 ATS: 9-8
Key off-season losses: Marcus Williams S, Ty Montgomery RB/WR, Garrett Griffin TE
Key off-season additions: Tyrann Mathieu DB, Chris Olave WR, Jarvis Landry WR, Marcus Maye S

New Orleans Saints Win Total - 8.5

General manager Mickey Loomis managed to patch up weak spots on offense during the draft, taking a much-needed receiver, Chris Olave, in the first round and enormous left tackle Trevor Penning, to replace the departed Terron Armstead, in the second round — although Penning is now out indefinitely as he needs foot surgery. He also signed two premier safeties, upgrading from the duo of Marcus Williams and Malcolm Jenkins. He somehow pulled all this off, along with some nifty contract restructuring, actually allowing the Saints to linger $9 million under the salary cap.

New Orleans should be very good on the defensive side of the ball this season, and the pieces are in place for the Saints to be explosive offensively. The latter just depends on whether or not Jameis Winston plays at a high level this season.

DimersBOT: In our model's 10,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season, the Saints averaged 8.55 wins per year. However, it's hard to argue against the upside of New Orleans. The team has everything it needs to do special things as long as Winston is solid.

New Orleans Saints X-Factor - Jameis Winston, QB

Of course, everything is contingent on injuries, but if the Saints’ core remains healthy, the sky is the limit. No player’s health is more important than Winston's.

Keep in mind that Winston is one of only nine quarterbacks all time to throw for 5,000 yards in a season, and only 14 seasons have seen a QB throw for that many yards — five of those seasons were achieved by Drew Brees; Pete Carmichael was the Saints quarterback coach for one of those years and the offensive coordinator for the other four. Guess who’s still the offensive coordinator for the Saints?

The knock on Winston is that he throws too many interceptions, but in reality, he has never had a season where he’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and last year, in seven games, he only threw three interceptions vs. 14 touchdowns.

And this year, he has weapons to throw to. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Winston to lead the league in passing yards like he did in 2019, when he threw for 5,109 — the ninth-best mark in NFL history.

New Orleans Saints Super Bowl 57 Chances

The Saints come in at +4000 to win the Super Bowl, and this isn't anything to sneeze at. Besides the Los Angeles Rams, the NFC is wide-open, and potentially any team with a great defense could rise above the rest.

The Saints could have just that defense — one that could be borderline historic, if healthy. They now have marquee players on every level, from Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport book-ending their D-Line, to Demario Davis as their captain and rock at middle linebacker, to Marshon Lattimore at corner, and now Marcus Maye and the Honey Badger at safety. Keep an eye on this group.

And don’t worry about Sean Payton not roaming the sideline this year. For the last few years, the defense has been the more stellar unit of the two, and Dennis Allen, the coordinator for those defenses, now takes on the lead role.

DimersBOT: The Saints don't have the greatest of chances according to our model, but there's still value to be had here. The odds are just wildly out of whack for a team this talented. It's worth a sprinkle.

New Orleans Saints 2022 Schedule

September 11, 2022 - at Atlanta Falcons
September 18, 2022 - vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
September 25, 2022 - at Carolina Panthers
October 2, 2022 - vs. Minnesota Vikings
October 9, 2022 - vs Seattle Seahawks
October 16, 2022 - vs Cincinnati Bengals
October 20, 2022 - at Arizona Cardinals
October 30, 2022 - vs Las Vegas Raiders
November 7, 2022 - vs Baltimore Ravens
November 13, 2022 - at Pittsburgh Steelers
November 20, 2022 - vs Los Angeles Rams
November 27, 2022 - at San Francisco 49ers
December 5, 2022 - at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
December 18, 2022 - vs Atlanta Falcons
December 24, 2022 - at Cleveland Browns
January 1, 2023 - at Philadelphia Eagles
January 8, 2023 - vs Carolina Panthers

Kent Landry

Kent J. Landry is a freelance writer living on the Lower Atchafalaya River in south Louisiana. He has published pieces on everything from southern folk art, to the World Series of Poker, to the history of cooking pork in Cajun country. After twenty-one years as a coach and educator, Kent retired to dedicate his life to writing, become a scratch golfer (only 20 handicapped strokes more to go), playing guitar (decently), and Texas Hold ‘Em poker (still learning after all these years). He enjoys picking Fantasy Teams that make his friends and family swoon with envy, all the while watching pelicans and egrets soar through the cypress trees outside his window.