New England Patriots 2022 Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

The 2022 NFL season is firmly on the horizon and over the coming weeks the Dimers crew will break down the chances of each and every team, all vying for Super Bowl 57 glory in Glendale, Arizona come February.

Let's take a look at the key factors to consider when betting on the New England Patriots in 2022.

Ever since seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the story of the Patriots has revolved around who will be his replacement. It now looks like Mac Jones has the tools to be the franchise quarterback for the next decade, and New England is already better than expected.

New England Patriots Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks & Super Bowl Odds

New England Patriots

• 2021 Record: 10-7, 2nd in AFC East (Lost in Wild Card Round)
• 2021 ATS: 10-8
• Key off-season losses: Kyle Van Noy LB, J.C. Jackson CB, Dont'a Hightower LB, Ted Karras OL, Shaq Mason G, Jamie Collins LB
• Key off-season additions: Cole Strange OL, DeVante Parker WR, Malcolm Butler CB, Jabrill Peppers S, Tyquan Thornton WR

New England Patriots Win Total - 8.5

Despite being the fourth quarterback selected in the 2021 draft, Jones had the most success out of the rookie quarterbacks a season ago. Jones led all rookie quarterbacks in the following categories: win percentage (.588), yards (3,801) and completion percentage (67.6). Jones' ceiling wasn’t considered as high compared to the quarterbacks taken before him because of concerns about his lack of mobility and lack of athleticism to extend plays when they break down. He also wasn't considered a quarterback that would take chances down the field. 

All of the shortcomings were on display last year, as Jones only threw for an average of 7.1 yards per attempt and he rarely was able to use his legs to do much of anything. However, Jones has made it a priority in the offseason to focus on his training and nutrition. And he doesn't exactly need to be the most athletic player in the world because he's accurate and makes great decisions with the football. Bill Belichick will never ask him to be anything that he's not and he certainly looks like he can be a high-level starter in this league for a long time. 

“For me, it was just cleaning up my diet and I’ve learned more this offseason than I probably ever have about nutrition, sleep, wellness and all that stuff,” Jones said in an interview. “I’m kind of taking what I’ve learned that I feel will help me, and apply it, and obviously listening to Ted and everybody, just following their plan, eating healthy, taking out a lot of things that are bad for my diet, but, at the same time I need to maintain my weight and be able to take hits, so there’s a fine balance for every player. For me, I’ve definitely trimmed down on the body fat a little bit and I’ll get a chance to bulk back up before the season starts and be able to absorb the hits.”

To help Jones, the Patriots acquired DeVante Parker from the Miami Dolphins. Parker had a breakout year in 2019, with 72 catches, 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns. But Parker has struggled to get back to that level over the last two seasons, as he has totaled 103 catches, 1,308 yards and six touchdowns since then.

Adding Parker should greatly benefit Jones because he gives him a deep-threat option that the team has lacked in previous years. He's a legitimate jump-ball threat, as he stands at 6'3'' and has good hands. 

Having Parker in the receiving core should boost the production of the 2021 free agency signings, like Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. This should allow the Patriots to thrive on the offensive side of the ball this year because they should be able to generate more explosive plays with Jones prioritizing his training and the receivers having a better understanding of how the offense is run. New England also has one of the best rushing attacks in the league. 

PICK: Over 8.5 wins

DimersBOT: In our model's 10,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season, the Patriots averaged 9.18 wins per year. That means that the Over is a huge edge for us, with our average being .68 wins higher than the win total. 

New England Patriots X-Factor - Jonnu Smith, TE

After signing a four-year, $50-million contract in free agency last year, Smith was a complete non-factor last season, finishing with just 28 receptions, 294 yards and one touchdown. It’s critical for Smith to get integrated in the offense. He should be another threat that the defense has to worry about, as he has game-changing speed at tight end. As a result, it will make life easier for everybody on the Patriots.

If the Patriots want to challenge the Buffalo Bills for the division and beyond, Smith has to become the red-zone threat he was when he was with the Tennessee Titans. 

New England Patriots Super Bowl 57 Chances

The AFC East is the toughest it’s been in over a decade, with the Bills having arguably the best quarterback in the league in Josh Allen and the Miami Dolphins having potentially one of the most explosive offenses in football.

This makes the value for the Patriots going all the way unattractive. The Patriots aren’t a championship caliber team just yet because of the number of changes to their coaching this year. Former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels accepted the head coaching job with the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason and he'll be a significant loss for the offense. Currently, what the Patriots are lacking is stability on the offensive side of the ball. Their continuity is a primary concern because Jones was attached at the hip to McDaniels. And having Joe Judge and Matt Patricia as McDaniels' replacements isn't exactly inspiring.  

DimersBOT: While our model likes the Patriots to win nine or 10 games and potentially earn a wild-card spot, we don't see much value in backing New England to win Super Bowl 57. 

New England Patriots 2022 Schedule 

• September 11, 2022 - at Miami Dolphins
• September 18, 2022 - at Pittsburgh Steelers
• September 25, 2022 - vs Baltimore Ravens
• October 2, 2022 - at Green Bay Packers
• October 9, 2022 - vs Detroit Lions
• October 16, 2022 - at Cleveland Browns
• October 24, 2022 - vs Chicago Bears
• October 30, 2022 -  at New York Jets
• November 6, 2022 - vs Indianapolis Colts
• November 20, 2022 - vs New York Jets
• November 24, 2022 - at Minnesota Vikings
• December 1, 2022 - vs Buffalo Bills
• December 12, 2022 - at Arizona Cardinals
• December 18, 2022 - at Las Vegas Raiders
• December 24, 2022 - vs Cincinnati Bengals
• January 1, 2023 - vs Miami Dolphins
• January 8, 2023 - at Buffalo Bills