Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Odds - Apr 27, 2023

The Toronto Maple Leafs square off with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2023 NHL Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:00PM ET.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is an elimination tournament in the National Hockey League to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.

A total of 16 teams, including the Lightning and Maple Leafs, reached the NHL Playoffs 2023, which consists of 4 rounds – the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round of the NHL Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to 4 wins moving on to the next round.

Dimers' best betting picks for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, as well as game predictions, betting odds and projected player stats, are detailed below.

Who will win Lightning vs. Maple Leafs?

Based on trusted machine learning and data, Dimers.com has simulated Thursday's Lightning-Maple Leafs NHL Playoffs game 10,000 times.

Dimers' revolutionary predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, gives the Maple Leafs a 57% chance of beating the Lightning.

More: Free Betting Guide for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Game Odds

• Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+170), Lightning +1.5 (-195)
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs -150, Lightning +135
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-105)

Puck Line, Moneyline and Over/Under

The Maple Leafs are currently -1.5 favorites against the Lightning, with +170 at PointsBet the best odds currently available.

For the underdog Lightning (+1.5) to cover the puck line, DraftKings Sportsbook has the best odds currently on offer at -195.

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at -150. That means you can risk $150 to win $100, for a total payout of $250, if they get the W.

On the other hand, PointsBet currently has the best moneyline odds for the Lightning at +135, where you can bet $100 to profit $135, earning a total payout of $235, if they win.

The Over/Under sits at 6.5 with PointsBet, which currently has the best odds for the Over at -110, while BetMGM currently has the best odds for the Under at -105.

As always, make sure you check all the legal sportbooks available in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Lightning (+1.5) are a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal Over/Under is a 52% chance of going Under.

More: Today's Best Bets for All Major Sports

Best Bets for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

• Puck Line: Lightning +1.5 @ -195 via DraftKings Sportsbook (66% probability)
• Moneyline: Lightning @ +135 via PointsBet (0.6% edge)
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -105 via BetMGM (52% probability)

Dimers' best bets are based on complex modeling and wagering expertise to bring you the best possible plays every day of the year.

While the Maple Leafs are more likely to win the game, according to DimersBOT, taking the Lightning moneyline is the best option because of the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the betting odds currently available.

Taking advantage of the edges published here at Dimers is crucial to achieving long-term profitability as a bettor.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

Click or tap on See Matchup to reveal more.

Dimers has full betting coverage of Thursday's Lightning-Maple Leafs matchup, including pregame predictions, computer picks, and live win probabilities.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Player Props

Who will score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs? The data is in.

Listed below are the most likely first goal and most likely anytime goal scorers for both the Lightning and Maple Leafs.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you discover the best prop picks for Thursday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

DimersBOT gives Matthews an ** chance of scoring the first goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the Maple Leafs star is a 51.1% chance of netting an anytime goal**.

Scroll down for the full list of first and anytime goal scorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Probabilities

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Steven Stamkos: 7.7% probability
• Brayden Point: 7.5% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 6.2% probability
• Alex Killorn: 4.9% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 3.9% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 11.8% probability
• Mitchell Marner: 6.4% probability
• John Tavares: 6.3% probability
• William Nylander: 5.7% probability
• Ryan O'Reilly: 4.2% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Probabilities

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Brayden Point: 36.8% probability
• Steven Stamkos: 36.3% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 32.8% probability
• Alex Killorn: 27.4% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 20.7% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 51.1% probability
• Mitchell Marner: 36.7% probability
• John Tavares: 32.5% probability
• William Nylander: 30.3% probability
• Ryan O'Reilly: 23.9% probability

Don't forget, DimersBOT updates regularly, so refresh this page for the latest betting analysis before Lightning vs. Maple Leafs on Thursday April 27, 2023.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs 2023 Game Info

Thursday's action between the Maple Leafs and Lightning in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Thursday April 27, 2023
• Time: 7:00PM ET / 4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Enjoy Dimers.com and want to keep the site free? Every time you join a sportsbook featured here, we get paid a small fee.

These fees help us keep Dimers free for sports fans like you. So, if you like what you see, support us by joining one of our trusted sports betting partners today. All of Dimers’ picks and predictions are made after 10,000 data-driven simulations per game, giving you reliable and accurate predictions that can help you make informed decisions.

If you are using these Lightning vs. Maple Leafs picks for your personal gambling, it is crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

What other NHL games are on today?

Now you've got the 411 on Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, take a look at the latest betting predictions for all upcoming NHL games thanks to Dimers' NHL picks and predictions page. There you can find probabilities and odds, as well as our best bets for each and every NHL matchup.

Want a pick for the Puck Line? You got it. How about the Over/Under? Yup, got that too. The Moneyline? Yes sir. And these picks are good, I mean REALLY good!

As well as NHL game picks and predicitons, we also provide the best NHL prop bets for today, with our projections for first and anytime goal scorers and more lined up against the best available sportsbook odds every single day of the NHL season.