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Euro Soccer Best Bets: Plays From Across Europe on Saturday, October 1 and Sunday October 2, 2022Sep 29, 2022, 11:02AM
Every day is a blessing so they say. I say Hogwash! I’m here to tell them they’re undoubtedly wrong. Because, as I am consistently reminded every fucking time it rolls around, international break is the scourge of the soccer gambling world and cause for mourning.
You see, I don’t need a lot in life. I’m happy to plod along with a boring job and a few small pleasures to keep me going, but one of the few things I’ve learned I absolutely HAVE TO HAVE is something to gamble on during the day to keep me from falling into a comatose state. Soccer is the perfect sport for it, with games starting at noon (or earlier, depending on your degeneracy level) from Monday to Friday to keep the blood pumping so I can do my job just well enough to not get fired.
The obvious response for that intro might be: “But, Sam, there is soccer during the break, it’s just international teams playing each other.” WRONG. WRONG WRONG WRONG. You see, International soccer, while fun, is completely unpredictable and significantly lower quality than club soccer, particularly when they’re outside of a major competition like the World Cup. And for 11 days we got nothing but friendlies and Nations League games with zero significance which made for terrible viewing and wagering. So, while there was technically soccer, it’s sort of like telling a big fan of Beyonce that Queen B is performing down the street only to find a toothless woman screaming “SINGLE LADIES” over and over on the corner.
With that lovely image in mind, let’s move on to our picks!
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Euro Soccer Best Bets: October 1 & 2
🇩🇪 Frankfurt vs. Union: Saturday October 1, 9:30 AM EST
Our first bet back and we’re putting the pedal to the fucking metal. To be honest, there are a lot of good options for Saturday and there were safer lines to wager on, but Union have been an impressive side the entire year and I cant help but take another shot at the Bundesliga leaders (a SHOCKING thing to even say).
Union average over 2 goals per game on the season through 7 games, and have produced some great results including a win over Leipzig and a draw with Bayern. Sure, they’re going to regress eventually to somewhere closer to the fourth or fifth spot, but their opponents, Frankfurt, are entirely mediocre and do a horrendous job on the defensive end. Frankfurt have conceded 13 goals in 7 games while scoring 14, so you can expect some chances and goals on both ends. With that, we can take a solid swing at Union who are getting a surprising amount of disrespect from the books at +182 for Over 1.5 goals and +630 for Over 2.5.
I normally keep these aggressive picks off of Dimers because people tend to see odds like this and go a little crazy, but I’ve got no choice but to bet this one and I want all of my readers to share in the (potential, I make no assurances) fun.
🇫🇷 Lorient vs. Lille: Sunday October 2, 7 AM EST
Much like Frankfurt in our last bet, Lille prefers to keep things interesting with loads of goals on both ends of the pitch. Lille both score and concede exactly 2 goals per through 8 matches, and we rode over 2.5 to victory in their last match purely for this reason. If it ain't broke, don’t fix it.
Even better, their opponent, Lorient, aren't far behind. Lorient bafflingly sit in 3rd place (yes, baffling, when you consider they finished 16th last season) with 17 scored and 12 conceded through 8 matches, which also combines for well over 3 per match. So, with Over 2.5 at a ridiculously generous -124, I don’t see any reason to not take on this number for a pretty large risk. Sometimes gambling is about creativity and nuance, other times you simply have to ride with the numbers. This is one of the latter.
🇩🇰 Copenhagen vs. Aarhus: Sunday October 2, 12 PM EST
Denmark is an absolute clusterfuck right now. That may be a statement that means absolutely nothing to you, or, better yet, may simply be confusing, but it’s an accurate description of the Superliga. The two perennial powers sit 7th and 9th out of 12 teams, a team named after the horse is in the top half of the table, and the unpronounceable “Nordsjaelland” are 2 points off the top. I rest my case.
As for this game, the idea isn't all that complicated. Copenhagen are the reigning champions and typically dominate in Denmark, but have struggled this year because of their defensive failures (17 conceded) not their offensive failures (17 scored). While things aren't entirely in order at the moment, Copenhagen just canned their coach which is usually a kick in the ass to players trying to earn or keep a spot under the new manager, and I expect you see a bit more inspired play out of them. Against a decidedly average Aarhus side who have conceded multiple to Copenhagen in 5 of their last 6 meetings, I think Team Total over 1.5 is a fair place to go, and the money is surprisingly good at -122 for the home side. You may not want to (or even be able to) watch this game, but the price is worth it here.