Houston vs. LAFC Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Houston vs. LAFC MLS match on May 10, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
MLS
FINAL
MLS sport icon
MLS
Houston
4
1
BMO Stadium
LAFC
BMO Stadium
LAFCLAFC
Score Summary
HoustonHOU
N. Ordaz (45')
Soccer ball icon
J. McGlynn (25')
Soccer ball icon
Guilherme (34')
Soccer ball icon
M. Bogusz (51')
Soccer ball icon
J. McGlynn (55')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • LAFC
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Houston
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    Felipe Andrade (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    R. Raposo (Los Angeles FC) cautioned
  3. 90'
    Yellow Card
    Nkosi Tafari (Los Angeles FC) cautioned
  4. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: I. Aliyu replaces Guilherme
  5. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: O. Lingr replaces E. Ponce
  6. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: D. Holmes replaces M. Bogusz
  7. 86'
    Yellow Card
    T. Boyd (Los Angeles FC) cautioned
  8. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: H. Herrera replaces D. Samassekou
  9. 80'
    Yellow Card
    D. Martinez (Los Angeles FC) cautioned
  10. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Los Angeles FC: J. Ebobisse replaces N. Ordaz
  11. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Houston Dynamo: A. Bouzat replaces J. McGlynn
  12. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Los Angeles FC: T. Tillman replaces S. Eustaquio
  13. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Los Angeles FC: T. Boyd replaces J. Shaffelburg
  14. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Los Angeles FC: M. Choiniere replaces M. Delgado
  15. 55'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by J. McGlynn
    4-1
  16. 51'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by M. Bogusz
    3-1
  17. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Los Angeles FC by N. Ordaz
    2-1
  18. 45'
    Yellow Card
    J. McGlynn (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
  19. 43'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Los Angeles FC: R. Raposo replaces S. Palencia
  20. 34'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by Guilherme
    2-0
  21. 27'
    Yellow Card
    Guilherme (Houston Dynamo) cautioned
  22. 25'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Houston Dynamo by J. McGlynn, assisted by L. Ennali
    1-0

Houston vs. LAFC: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Houston vs. LAFC
  • Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • Venue: BMO Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Houston +390, LAFC -145, draw +300
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-143/+120)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Houston: 16.0%
  • LAFC: 62.9%
  • Draw: 21.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Houston 0-1 LAFC (11.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Houston vs. LAFC? Prediction & correct score

LAFC is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 62.9%.

The most likely correct score is Houston 0-1 LAFC.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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