MLB picks today: Tuesday's MLB best bets include Padres vs. Diamondbacks play [8/4/2026]

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5 runs (-108)

• Edge: 6.3%
• Probability: 58.2%
• Matchup: Padres vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 8.5 runs in Padres vs. Diamondbacks at -108 odds. A 58.2% probability produces an edge of 6.3%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

White Sox vs. Red Sox Over 8.5 runs (-117)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 59%
• Matchup: White Sox vs. Red Sox (7:10PM ET)

White Sox vs. Red Sox over 8.5 runs carries a 5.1% edge and a probability of 59% at -117 odds, according to our model.

Mets ML (+138)

• Edge: 5.0%
• Probability: 47%
• Matchup: Mets vs. Guardians (6:40PM ET)

Mets ML at +138 odds shows a 5.0% edge, supported by a 47% probability in simulations.

Mets vs. Guardians over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 55.5%
• Matchup: Mets vs. Guardians (6:40PM ET)

A 4.6% edge and 55.5% probability make Mets vs. Guardians over 7.5 runs a value play in the Mets vs. Guardians matchup, per our model.

Pirates vs. Brewers Over 7.5 runs (+100)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 54.4%
• Matchup: Pirates vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET)

Pirates vs. Brewers Over 7.5 runs at +100 odds presents a 4.4% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 54.4%.

Giants vs. Rangers Over 8 runs (+100)

• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 54%
• Matchup: Giants vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 8 runs in Giants vs. Rangers at +100 odds, supported by an edge of 4.0%.

Giants ML (+178)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 40.3%
• Matchup: Giants vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Giants-Rangers to finish as a tie after 90 minutes at +178 odds. A 40.3% probability produces a 3.8% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Athletics vs. Reds Over 9.5 runs (+113)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 50.7%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Reds (6:40PM ET)

A 3.7% edge on a 50.7% probability makes Over 9.5 runs at +113 odds a solid value play in today's Athletics vs. Reds matchup.

Cardinals vs. YankeesOver 8.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 51.6%
• Matchup: Cardinals vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET)

Our model projects value on Over 8.5 runs at +108 odds. A 51.6% probability produces a 3.5% edge, making the Over the favorable side in today's matchup.

Yankees -1.5 (+133)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 45.9%
• Matchup: Cardinals vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Yankees -1.5 at +133 odds shows a 45.9% probability and a 3.0% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Tuesday, 8/4/2026

As of 7:39AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [8/4/2026]

• Nationals vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• Athletics vs. Reds (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• Mets vs. Guardians (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• Cardinals vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Tuesday)
• White Sox vs. Red Sox (7:10PM ET, Tuesday)
• Marlins vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Tuesday)
• Pirates vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• Twins vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• Dodgers vs. Cubs (8:05PM ET, Tuesday)
• Giants vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Tuesday)
• Blue Jays vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Tuesday)
• Rays vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Tuesday)
• Padres vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Tuesday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for August 4, 2026, featuring plays such as over 8.5 runs in the Padres vs. Diamondbacks matchup and over 8.5 runs in the White Sox vs. Red Sox matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.