Toluca vs. Tigres UANL Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Tigres UANL Liga MX match on January 17, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Toluca
0
:
0
Jan 17, 8:00 PM ET Estadio Universitario
Tigres UANL
Jan 17, 8:00 PM ET Estadio Universitario
Tigres UANLUANL
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
J. Sanchez (76')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Tigres UANL
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Toluca
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Yellow Card
J. Brunetta (Tigres UANL) cautioned
90'
Yellow Card
N. Guzman (Tigres UANL) cautioned
90'
Yellow Card
S. Cordova (Toluca) cautioned
89'
Substitution
Substitution for Tigres UANL: J. Vigon replaces A. Correa
83'
Substitution
Substitution for Tigres UANL: U. Antuna replaces D. Lainez
76'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces J. Angulo
76'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: S. Cordova replaces S. Simon
76'
Red Card
J. Sanchez (Tigres UANL) sent off for a second yellow card
74'
Yellow Card
J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned
72'
Yellow Card
Paulinho (Toluca) cautioned
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces P. Perez
57'
Substitution
Substitution for Tigres UANL: M. Flores replaces N. Ibanez
54'
Yellow Card
J. Sanchez (Tigres UANL) cautioned
45'
Yellow Card
J. Angulo (Toluca) cautioned

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Toluca vs. Tigres UANL: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Tigres UANL
  • Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Universitario

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca +245, Tigres UANL +110, draw +245
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-120/-102)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 27.5%
  • Tigres UANL: 48.5%
  • Draw: 24.0%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Tigres UANL (11.3%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Toluca vs. Tigres UANL? Prediction & correct score

Tigres UANL is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 48.5%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Tigres UANL.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Toluca vs. Tigres UANL, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.