Queretaro vs. Toluca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [8/21/2026]

Queretaro will take on Toluca in Liga MX action at Estadio La Corregidora on Friday, beginning at 11:10 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced Liga MX model projects Toluca as the most likely winner in this Queretaro vs. Toluca prediction.

This article offers further insights into Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Queretaro vs. Toluca prediction: Who will win?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's Liga MX game between Queretaro and Toluca, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 22.7% chance of Queretaro winning, a 55.3% chance for Toluca, and a 22.1% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 59.5% chance of going over, with a 58.8% likelihood that both teams find the net.

Queretaro vs. Toluca odds

We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Toluca +100, Queretaro +290

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Queretaro vs. Toluca picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Toluca @ +100 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -154 via Bet365

According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Queretaro vs. Toluca: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Queretaro 1-1 Toluca (10.2% probability)
• Queretaro 1-2 Toluca (9.8%)
• Queretaro 0-1 Toluca (8.7%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 58.8% chance of both sides finding the net and a 41.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Queretaro vs. Toluca game-day updates and essential details

Friday's action between Queretaro and Toluca at Estadio La Corregidora is scheduled to start at 11:10 PM ET.

• Who: Queretaro vs. Toluca
• Date: Friday, August 21, 2026
• Time: 11:10 PM ET/8:10PM PT
• Venue: Estadio La Corregidora

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Queretaro has a 22.7% win probability on Friday, Toluca has a 55.3% win probability, and there is a 22.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.