Pumas UNAM vs. Cruz Azul prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [10/11/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's Liga MX game between Pumas UNAM and Cruz Azul, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model suggests a 31.6% chance of Pumas UNAM winning, a 42.7% chance for Cruz Azul, and a 25.8% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 50.1% chance of staying under., with a 53.9% likelihood that both teams score.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Cruz Azul +105, Pumas UNAM +235
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-158/+124)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Pumas UNAM @ +235 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +124 via FanDuel

According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Pumas UNAM 1-1 Cruz Azul (12.2% probability)
• Pumas UNAM 0-1 Cruz Azul (10.1%)
• Pumas UNAM 1-2 Cruz Azul (8.9%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 53.9% chance of both Pumas UNAM and Cruz Azul finding the net and a 46.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Sunday's Liga MX game between Pumas UNAM and Cruz Azul is scheduled to begin at 9:15 PM ET.

• Who: Pumas UNAM vs. Cruz Azul
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 9:15 PM ET/6:15PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Pumas UNAM has a 31.6% win probability on Sunday, Cruz Azul has a 42.7% win probability, and there is a 25.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Liga MX prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.