Jay-Z picks himself for Super Bowl LXI. Halftime odds turn to his guests

Jay-Z is officially the Super Bowl LXI halftime headliner, and on Kalshi that market is closed. The open question is who joins him on stage, and that won't settle until the show.

The NFL, Apple Music, and Roc Nation announced Monday night that Jay-Z will headline the Feb. 14 show at SoFi Stadium. The confirmation came a week after Dimers reported that his price had run to 94% on unconfirmed reports.

Kalshi has settled Jay-Z's contract in its headliner market at $1, since those contracts pay out once an artist is announced as headliner. The performers market, which asks who appears during the show, works differently. It resolves on what happens on stage Feb. 14.

Pharrell and Rihanna climb in Kalshi's guest market as spreads run wide

At the time of writing, Kalshi's page showed sharp gains across the Super Bowl performers market. Pharrell Williams sat at 63%, up 36 points. Rihanna was at 44%, up 29, and Justin Timberlake at 30%, up 22.

Check the price before the percentage. Rihanna's Yes contract cost 72 cents to buy while the page showed 44%, and selling Yes would have fetched about 52 cents. Pharrell and Timberlake each showed a 33-cent gap between their buy and sell prices.

A gap that wide means a trader who buys and changes their mind right away takes a heavy loss. On Pharrell, that's 33 cents on a 63-cent contract. The contracts expire Feb. 15, 2027, so money stays tied up for more than three months unless sold.

Beyoncé, Rihanna, and Pharrell joined Jay-Z on tour, but none is confirmed yet

Jay-Z's recent shows are the clearest record of who he brings on stage. Beyoncé, Rihanna, Eminem, and Nas joined him at Yankee Stadium. Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, John Legend, and DJ Khaled were among his guests at SoFi Stadium last weekend, according to ESPN, with additional reports that Pharrell appeared at a July 11 show at Yankee Stadium.

Beyoncé, who has performed at two Super Bowls, shared stadium stages with him in 2025 too, when he made three surprise appearances on her Cowboy Carter Tour.

A tour cameo isn't a halftime booking. None of these names has been announced for the Super Bowl.

Cardi B's 2026 cameo shows how Kalshi defines a performance

Last season showed how much the definition matters. Kalshi's performers market for Bad Bunny's show drew more than $47.3 million in volume, according to the AP. When Cardi B appeared on stage and it was unclear whether she sang, Kalshi cited the ambiguity and settled her contract at the last traded price: 74 cents for No holders and 26 cents for Yes holders.

Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana told the AP that singing and dancing counted under the full rules, but "just dancing in the background did not."

Last year's rules didn't count background dancing. Anyone trading a guest contract this year should check whether the current rules say the same.

Kalshi lists a market on Jay-Z's opening song, with no prices yet

Kalshi has also opened a market on the first song Jay-Z plays at halftime, as it did for Bad Bunny's show last season. At the time of writing, contracts on "99 Problems," "Big Pimpin'," and "Clique" each showed less than 1%, with no Yes or No prices posted. More songs may be added as the show gets closer.

As with the guest contracts, it settles on what happens on stage Feb. 14, and the rules on what counts as the first song decide who gets paid.

Kalshi's guest contracts won't settle until the Feb. 14 show

The headliner market needed one announcement. The performers and opener markets need a show, a clear view of what happened on stage, and a rulebook that decides whether it counted.

For anyone trading entertainment markets like this one, the percentage on screen is only part of the price. The gap between buying and selling, the months until settlement, and the definition of a performance all shape what a guest contract is worth.

Kalshi paid out on Jay-Z, but the Super Bowl guest market may be more complex.

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