Is Jay-Z headlining Super Bowl LXI? Not officially, despite 94% odds

Kalshi traders are paying 93 cents for a contract that pays $1 if Jay-Z headlines the Super Bowl LXI halftime show.

But the NFL hasn't announced him. Roc Nation hasn't confirmed it. And Jay-Z himself hasn't publicly addressed it.

The reporting behind that price comes from two outlets, both relying on anonymous sources. Puck reported early Tuesday, citing multiple sources, that Jay-Z had picked himself. Deadline followed later that day, citing a single music industry insider. Puck said reps for the NFL and Roc Nation didn't respond to its request for comment.

Much of the coverage since has repackaged those two reports, and some of it dropped the qualifier. As of the time of writing this article, neither the league nor Roc Nation has named a headliner.

What's reported, and what's confirmed?

• Reported: Jay-Z, whose company Roc Nation chooses the halftime act, picked himself over Miley Cyrus and Justin Bieber, according to Puck. Deadline's source said he will headline.
• Not confirmed: There has been no on-the-record statement from the NFL, Roc Nation, or Jay-Z.
• Scheduled: Super Bowl LXI is Feb. 14 at SoFi Stadium, where Jay-Z plays concerts on Oct. 23 and 24.

The announcement is running late

Pro Football Talk noted that the NFL named its halftime performer in September for each of the past two Super Bowls. With October nearly over, this year's pick still hasn't been made public.

The choice rests with one person. Halftime producer Jesse Collins told Variety in 2024, "It's a decision that Jay makes," according to Billboard. In this market, the artist the contract is about is also the person who makes the call.

What Jay-Z's Super Bowl halftime odds are pricing in

Before the reports, Kalshi's headliner market had Jay-Z running roughly even with Cyrus, according to Kalshi News, the exchange's own news site. It put him at 92% afterward. At the time of writing, the market page showed 94%, up 37 points, with Yes contracts at 93 cents.

At that price, a Yes contract returns 7 cents if Jay-Z headlines, about 7.5% on the money at risk before fees. If the reporting is wrong or plans change, the full 93 cents is lost. The No side costs 9 cents and pays $1 in that scenario.

An official announcement wouldn't necessarily mean an early payout either. Kalshi lists the market's expiration as Feb. 15, 2027, the day after the game, and traders who want out sooner have to sell at whatever the market offers.

Beyoncé's price moved too

The market is titled "Headliner(s)," and its prices add up to well over 100%, so more than one artist can resolve Yes. Beyoncé's headliner contract rose 32 points to 39% on the market page.

Puck's report didn't say Beyoncé would be involved. It speculated that a Jay-Z show would lean on his connections for cameos but named no confirmed guests.

What would make it official?

Puck reported that Jay-Z "could formally announce the Super Bowl gig this weekend" when he plays the first of his two SoFi shows. Pro Football Talk suggested any reveal would likely be coordinated with ESPN and ABC, which are televising the game.

If the weekend passes without an announcement, the 93-cent price will rest on two anonymous reports. If one comes, the open questions move to the co-headliner and guest markets, where no confirmed names have been reported.

A 93-cent price is not an announcement

Two anonymously sourced reports took Jay-Z from a two-way race with Miley Cyrus to a 94% favorite on Kalshi. Prediction market prices reflect what traders expect, and in entertainment markets like this one, expectations can run well ahead of confirmation.

At 93 cents, the market is pricing the announcement as a near certainty. But near certainty isn't certainty, and until the NFL or Roc Nation makes it official, there's still risk.

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Disclosure: Dimers has a commercial relationship with Kalshi.