Red River Rivalry blowout or slugfest? Dimers model points to fading recent scoring trend

Oklahoma vs. Texas, the 122nd edition of the Red River rivalry, arrives with Texas holding a 65-51-5 all-time lead in the series and kickoff set for 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 10, 2026.

There is a lopsided recent pattern reflected in our Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions, two very different quarterback prospects in Arch Manning and John Mateer, and a game total that doesn't point to some of the offensive explosions we've seen in years past.

With the aid of Dimers' college football predictions model, we dig into every angle of this week's marquee matchup.

Oklahoma vs. Texas: History of the Red River Rivalry

Texas brings a 65-51-5 series lead into the 122nd meeting, and the Dimers model makes the Longhorns a 74% favorite to add to it, a view the sportsbooks share almost point for point.

Texas's last three wins in the series have been blowouts, including in back-to-back seasons, while Oklahoma's victories have been tighter, with five of its last seven wins featuring one-score games.

Overtime is rare, as the game has gone to extra time only once in the past 30 years, the 4OT meeting in 2020.

What the Dimers model says about Oklahoma vs. Texas

Where our model parts from recent history is the margin, projecting a 24-17 victory for Texas, a one-score game rather than a third consecutive Texas blowout win, leaving the 7.5-point spread as an effective coin flip, with the slimmest of leans to the underdog at 50.8%.

Our firmest disagreement with the market is in the total, where the model's 41-point projection points to scoring bouncing back above 39.5 after two low-scoring meetings, behind a 56.4% probability to go over 39.5, good enough for a 3.6% edge.

Impact of John Mateer and Arch Manning on the Dimers data

This year's total of 39.5 had been cleared by at least 10 points in nine straight meetings before the last two meetings in 2024 and 2025, which landed at 37 and 29 points. Our model's projection is above the 39.5 line, albeit by roughly 2 points rather than multiple scores.

Both teams sport defenses allowing 18 points or fewer per game, while Texas' offense has shown a much higher ceiling.

Oklahoma's John Mateer has thrown at least one touchdown pass in all four of his games and topped 225 passing yards in three of four games this season, both identified as edge plays via our college football trends tool, with an even stronger passing trend dating back to last season.

Texas counters with Arch Manning, who's thrown for a modest 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, presently featuring no value in our college football player props.

Texas' implied final score of 24 in our game prediction, does suggest a trio of touchdowns for the Longhorns, so keep your eye out for any TD prop value on players like Cam Coleman or Ryan Wingo in Dimers' best college football props as we approach kickoff.

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