Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky prediction: Why Western Kentucky is favored to win in college football Week 6 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Western Kentucky a 53.3% chance of defeating Missouri State. Our predicted final score has Western Kentucky winning 29-27. According to our model, Western Kentucky (+0.5) has a 55.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 56.5 points has a 50.5% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Missouri State -0.5 (-112) / Western Kentucky +0.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Missouri State +103, Western Kentucky -110
• Total: Over/Under 56.5 (-108/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Western Kentucky +0.5 @ -110 via BetRivers
• Moneyline: Western Kentucky @ -110 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 56.5 @ -106 via FanDuel

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Western Kentucky +0.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Thursday's college football matchup between Western Kentucky and Missouri State at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky
• Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Western Kentucky, with a 53.3% win probability, will likely beat Missouri State in Thursday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.