North Texas vs. Texas State prediction: Why Texas State is favored to win in college football Week 3 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of North Texas vs. Texas State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Texas State a 58.7% chance of defeating North Texas. Our predicted final score has Texas State winning 32-29. According to our model, Texas State (-3) has a 51.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 62.5 points has a 52.1% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: North Texas +3 (-106) / Texas State -3 (-105)
• Moneyline: North Texas +130, Texas State -142
• Total: Over/Under 62.5 (-108/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Texas State -3 @ -105 via bet365
• Moneyline: Texas State @ -142 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 62.5 @ -110 via bet365

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Texas State -3 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football action between Texas State and North Texas at UFCU Stadium is scheduled to begin at 12:00 PM ET.

• Who: North Texas vs. Texas State
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM ET/9:00AM PT
• Venue: UFCU Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Texas State, with a 58.7% win probability, will likely beat North Texas in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.