This betting tool has uncovered the best high value touchdown picks in College Football Week 3

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Written by Dave Garofolo
Reviewed by Nick Slade

The Dimers Pro model has unearthed an unlikely but highly profitable market through the first three weeks of college football.

College football touchdown betting on Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith.
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith has three touchdowns through his first two games of the season.

Three weeks into the college football betting season, one very specific market has emerged as the ultimate payoff for Dimers' brand-new college football player props model: touchdown props, more specifically, the 2+ touchdown market. Here's how to find them.

Across a 37-bet sample this season, Dimers is hitting a 110.1% ROI on 2+ touchdown props when our model shows a 0-5% edge over the market. Right alongside it, a related but distinct signal has emerged in the Anytime TD market, where a 49-bet sample carrying edges of 10%+ has produced a 28.2% ROI.

On 2+ touchdown props, it's the bets where our model and the sportsbooks are closest to agreement, with edges between 0 and 5%, that have delivered the strongest results.

On Anytime TD props, it's the opposite: the bigger the daylight between our number and the markets', the better the props have performed. Two different touchdown markets, two different flavors of value, and both are printing.

These strong returns are easy to find as both markets have been tagged with Dimers' "Sweet Spot" signal, an immensely valuable feature of Dimers Pro that quickly identifies our most profitable markets, updating daily.

With over 50 player props across these two "Sweet Spot" markets in Week 3, here's how to put that signal to work this college football Saturday, and all year long.

Target the high touchdown probabilities

The most straightforward approach.

Toggle the "Sweet Spot" signal and target the players Dimers' model says are most likely to find the end zone twice.

These may still be longshots relative to the market, but they're the names near the top of the 2+ TD probability board, which historically hasn't been where bettors find much value.

But that's exactly the point of Dimers Pro. The 0-5% edge Sweet Spot is telling us that when our model and the market similarly price a strong candidate, backing that player has been profitable.

CFB touchdown prop bets for Week 2.How to find Dimers' "Sweet Spot" props.

To find these players, keep the Sweet Spot filter toggled on when you're scanning Dimers' best props for the week, and sort by highest to lowest probability.

Be sure to keep the "Sweet Spot" signal on; without it, you'll run into plenty of 2+ TD props that carry an edge, but sit outside the range our data has been most accurate.

This week, Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (58.4%) and SDSU RB Lucky Sutton (32.2%) lead the market here as our highest probability players with an edge for multiple scores.

Find players with multiple betting edges

Another popular strategy, and one that we deployed with success over the past two weeks, is to look for players who get multiple Dimers model edges.

Once you've found a player sitting in either Sweet Spot, the next step is to check what our model says about them in the other touchdown markets we offer predictions for, 3+ TD and First TD.

We don't have Sweet Spot ranges defined in those markets (at least right now), but a player who shows an edge across multiple touchdown props at once is a signal in its own right. It means the model sees mispricing on that player from more than one angle, which directly led to cashing this pair of TD props in Week 1.

Our historical results still say the best bets to actually place are on which players land inside a Sweet Spot.

College Football touchdown bets Week 2.Our model has identified value on all four of Nate Frazier's TD markets.

But scanning for players with edges stacked across markets is a strong way to identify who the sportsbooks are struggling to price, and to build confidence in the Sweet Spot play you ultimately make.

This week, Georgia RB Nate Fraizer and West Virginia RB Cam Cook fit this mold. Both pop up with an edge in all four TD markets on Dimers, with a Sweet Spot on their Anytime TD prop

Look for both Sweet Spots

This is a spin-off of the second strategy but through a finer funnel.

Look for players who show up in both the 2+ TD Sweet Spot and the Anytime TD Sweet Spot at the same time. 

This group will span a wide range of probabilities, some heavy favorites, some longer shots, because the two Sweet Spots are built around different edge ranges.

What ties them together is that Dimers' model has flagged real value in two touchdown markets simultaneously, and so far this season, this has been the clearest marker of the players carrying the most profit potential on the board.

College Football prop betting Week 2.Auburn WR Jeremiah Koger lands in two Sweet Spots in Week 3.

As of publishing, the following five players carry our highest probabilities of those featuring in both Sweet Spot markets: QB David McComb (Miami OH), WR Dominic Overby (Iowa State), TE Toby Payne (Marshall), WR Adrian Norton (Marshall) and WR Jeremiah Koger (Auburn).

How to bet the Dimers Pro "Sweet Spots"

Three weeks is an early sample, but it's a large enough one that the pattern is worth building a game plan around heading into this week's slate.

Dimers Pro users get access to every college football betting insight every week, including the Sweet Spot.

Use the Sweet Spot toggle on both 2+ TD and Anytime TD props as a starting point for your weekly college football betting research.

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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
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Written by
Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.

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