Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa prediction favors Illinois State to win in college football Week 4 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Illinois State a 91.0% chance of defeating Northern Iowa. Our predicted final score has Illinois State winning 38-19. According to our model, Northern Iowa (+19.5) has a 52.0% chance of covering the spread, while the 58.5-point over/under has a 51.2% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Illinois State -19.5 (-103) / Northern Iowa +19.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Illinois State -1280, Northern Iowa +750
• Total: Over/Under 58.5 (-111/-111)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Northern Iowa +19.5 @ -115 via bet365
• Moneyline: Illinois State @ -1280 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 58.5 @ -111 via DraftKings

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Northern Iowa +19.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Northern Iowa and Illinois State at UNI-Dome is scheduled to commence at 5:00 PM ET.

• Who: Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
• Venue: UNI-Dome

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Conclusion

We predict Illinois State, with a 91.0% win probability, will likely beat Northern Iowa in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.