Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette prediction favors Louisiana-Lafayette to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Louisiana-Lafayette a 68.0% chance of beating Arkansas State. Our predicted final score has Louisiana-Lafayette winning 27-21. According to our model, Arkansas State (+6.5) has a 51.6% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 47.5 points has a 54.6% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Arkansas State +6.5 (-107) / Louisiana-Lafayette -6.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Arkansas State +200, Louisiana-Lafayette -230
• Total: Over/Under 47.5 (-114/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Arkansas State +6.5 @ -107 via BetRivers
• Moneyline: Arkansas State @ +200 via BetRivers
• Total: Over 47.5 @ -114 via FanDuel

According to our best college football bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 47.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State at Cajun Field at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Cajun Field at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium

College football Week 5 promos

Make the most of Dimers' Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette predictions by exploring the Bet365 Sportsbook offer below:

Conclusion

We predict Louisiana-Lafayette, with a 68.0% win probability, will likely beat Arkansas State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.