Toluca vs. Tigres UANL Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Tigres UANL Liga MX match on January 17, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Toluca
0
:
0
Estadio Universitario
Tigres UANL
Estadio Universitario
Tigres UANLUANL
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
J. Sanchez (76')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Tigres UANL
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Toluca
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    J. Brunetta (Tigres UANL) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    N. Guzman (Tigres UANL) cautioned
  3. 90'
    Yellow Card
    S. Cordova (Toluca) cautioned
  4. 89'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: J. Vigon replaces A. Correa
  5. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: U. Antuna replaces D. Lainez
  6. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces J. Angulo
  7. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: S. Cordova replaces S. Simon
  8. 76'
    Red Card
    J. Sanchez (Tigres UANL) sent off for a second yellow card
  9. 74'
    Yellow Card
    J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned
  10. 72'
    Yellow Card
    Paulinho (Toluca) cautioned
  11. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces P. Perez
  12. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: M. Flores replaces N. Ibanez
  13. 54'
    Yellow Card
    J. Sanchez (Tigres UANL) cautioned
  14. 45'
    Yellow Card
    J. Angulo (Toluca) cautioned

Toluca vs. Tigres UANL: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Tigres UANL
  • Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Universitario

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca +245, Tigres UANL +110, draw +245
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-120/-102)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 27.5%
  • Tigres UANL: 48.5%
  • Draw: 24.0%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Tigres UANL (11.3%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Toluca vs. Tigres UANL? Prediction & correct score

Tigres UANL is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 48.5%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Tigres UANL.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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