Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Oilers NHL game on February 3, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Maple Leafs
5
2
Rogers Place
Oilers
Rogers Place
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 2 3 5
Oilers
0 1 1 2
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    100%
  • Oilers
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 2 3 5
Oilers
0 1 1 2
P3 18:53 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 17:20 Goal scored by Bobby McMann
P3 15:01 Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 13:46 Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Connor Ingram
P3 13:38 Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
P3 12:34 Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
P3 11:14 Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 10:31 Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 09:23 Shot on goal by Josh Samanski saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 08:13 Power play - Goal scored by Matias Maccelli assisted by Max Domi and Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 07:42 Power play - Goal scored by John Tavares assisted by William Nylander and Matthew Knies
P3 07:31 Power play - Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Connor Ingram
P3 07:09 Power play - Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by teammate
P3 05:38 Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 02:22 Shot on goal by Spencer Stastney saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 02:11 Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Connor Ingram
P3 02:06 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 01:50 Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
P3 01:12 Shot on goal by Kasperi Kapanen saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 00:27 Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Anthony Stolarz
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:28
    Josh Samanski won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  3. P3 19:28
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  4. P3 18:56
    Matthew Knies won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
  5. P3 18:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  6. P3 17:20
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Bobby McMann
    4-2
  7. P3 16:34
    Giveaway by Darnell Nurse in defensive zone
  8. P3 15:42
    Trent Frederic credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone
  9. P3 15:30
    Scott Laughton credited with hit on Ty Emberson in offensive zone
  10. P3 15:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Anthony Stolarz
  11. P3 13:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Connor Ingram
  12. P3 13:38
    SHOT
    Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
  13. P3 13:36
    Stoppage - High Stick
  14. P3 12:34
    SHOT
    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
  15. P3 11:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Anthony Stolarz
  16. P3 11:01
    Trent Frederic credited with hit on Troy Stecher in offensive zone
  17. P3 10:44
    Giveaway by Darnell Nurse in defensive zone
  18. P3 10:34
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Jack Roslovic in defensive zone
  19. P3 10:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Anthony Stolarz
  20. P3 09:50
    John Tavares won faceoff against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in defensive zone
  21. P3 09:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Samanski saved by Anthony Stolarz
  22. P3 08:56
    Giveaway by Jake McCabe in neutral zone
  23. P3 08:13
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McDavid in neutral zone
  24. P3 08:13
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Matias Maccelli assisted by Max Domi and Oliver Ekman-Larsson
    4-2
  25. P3 07:42
    Power play - Max Domi won faceoff against Connor McDavid in neutral zone
  26. P3 07:42
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by John Tavares assisted by William Nylander and Matthew Knies
    3-2
  27. P3 07:31
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Connor Ingram
  28. P3 07:09
    SHOT
    Power play - Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by teammate
  29. P3 06:44
    John Tavares won faceoff against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in offensive zone
  30. P3 06:38
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
  31. P3 05:47
    Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
  32. P3 05:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Anthony Stolarz
  33. P3 04:27
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  34. P3 04:01
    Jack Roslovic won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  35. P3 03:52
    Trent Frederic won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  36. P3 03:37
    Giveaway by Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  37. P3 02:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Spencer Stastney saved by Anthony Stolarz
  38. P3 02:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Connor Ingram
  39. P3 02:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  40. P3 01:52
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
  41. P3 01:50
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
  42. P3 01:45
    Stoppage - Icing
  43. P3 01:37
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
  44. P3 01:14
    John Tavares won faceoff against Vasily Podkolzin in defensive zone
  45. P3 01:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kasperi Kapanen saved by Anthony Stolarz
  46. P3 00:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Anthony Stolarz
  47. P3 00:00
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McDavid in neutral zone
  48. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  49. P2 19:52
    Stoppage - Icing
  50. P2 19:45
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
  51. P2 18:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  52. P2 18:32
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  53. P2 18:25
    SHOT
    Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Troy Stecher
  54. P2 18:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Walman saved by Anthony Stolarz
  55. P2 17:08
    Ty Emberson credited with hit on Max Domi in neutral zone
  56. P2 16:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Connor Ingram
  57. P2 15:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mattias Ekholm saved by Anthony Stolarz
  58. P2 15:28
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  59. P2 15:21
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
  60. P2 15:21
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  61. P2 14:30
    Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in neutral zone
  62. P2 14:13
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
  63. P2 14:13
    Stoppage - Icing
  64. P2 13:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  65. P2 13:27
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Vasily Podkolzin
  66. P2 13:12
    SHOT
    Leon Draisaitl shot blocked by Simon Benoit
  67. P2 12:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Spencer Stastney
  68. P2 12:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Anthony Stolarz
  69. P2 11:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kasperi Kapanen
  70. P2 11:18
    Jack Roslovic won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  71. P2 11:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  72. P2 11:09
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Jack Roslovic in neutral zone
  73. P2 11:05
    Jack Roslovic won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  74. P2 10:32
    William Nylander won faceoff against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in defensive zone
  75. P2 10:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zach Hyman
  76. P2 09:02
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
  77. P2 09:02
    Stoppage - Puck in Penalty Benches
  78. P2 08:42
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Jack Roslovic in offensive zone
  79. P2 08:42
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  80. P2 07:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Connor Ingram
  81. P2 07:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Trent Frederic saved by Anthony Stolarz
  82. P2 07:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Anthony Stolarz
  83. P2 07:12
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Trent Frederic in neutral zone
  84. P2 07:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
  85. P2 07:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Connor Ingram
  86. P2 06:25
    SHOT
    Philippe Myers shot blocked by Ty Emberson
  87. P2 06:23
    Brandon Carlo credited with hit on Connor McDavid in neutral zone
  88. P2 06:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  89. P2 05:56
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Josh Samanski in defensive zone
  90. P2 05:56
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  91. P2 05:17
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
  92. P2 05:17
    Penalty to Darnell Nurse 2 minutes for Misconduct
  93. P2 05:17
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson
  94. P2 04:58
    SHOT
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  95. P2 04:22
    Giveaway by Trent Frederic in neutral zone
  96. P2 03:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Anthony Stolarz
  97. P2 02:48
    Giveaway by Jack Roslovic in offensive zone
  98. P2 02:12
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Spencer Stastney
  99. P2 02:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kasperi Kapanen saved by Anthony Stolarz
  100. P2 00:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Connor Ingram
  101. P2 00:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  102. P2 00:09
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
  103. P2 00:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Connor Ingram
  104. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  105. P1 19:22
    SHOT
    Leon Draisaitl shot blocked by Troy Stecher
  106. P1 18:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Scott Laughton
  107. P1 17:31
    SHOT
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
  108. P1 16:46
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
  109. P1 16:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Connor Ingram
  110. P1 16:24
    Penalty to Andrew Mangiapane 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson)
  111. P1 16:24
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  112. P1 16:09
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Darnell Nurse in offensive zone
  113. P1 15:45
    Giveaway by Mattias Janmark in offensive zone
  114. P1 15:40
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Trent Frederic in defensive zone
  115. P1 15:40
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  116. P1 14:42
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
  117. P1 14:40
    SHOT
    Spencer Stastney shot blocked by Matias Maccelli
  118. P1 14:10
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
  119. P1 14:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Connor Ingram
  120. P1 13:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kasperi Kapanen
  121. P1 13:15
    Simon Benoit credited with hit on Kasperi Kapanen in defensive zone
  122. P1 12:42
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot missed by Scott Laughton
  123. P1 12:14
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in neutral zone
  124. P1 11:44
    SHOT
    Power play - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  125. P1 11:34
    SHOT
    Power play - Zach Hyman shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
  126. P1 11:00
    Power play - Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  127. P1 11:00
    Penalty to Oliver Ekman-Larsson 2 minutes for Misconduct
  128. P1 10:32
    Giveaway by Max Domi in offensive zone
  129. P1 09:21
    Darnell Nurse credited with hit on Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  130. P1 09:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Anthony Stolarz
  131. P1 08:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  132. P1 07:59
    Stoppage - Icing
  133. P1 07:14
    Giveaway by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in defensive zone
  134. P1 07:08
    Takeaway by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in defensive zone
  135. P1 06:51
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Oilers in defensive zone
  136. P1 06:49
    SHOT
    Mattias Ekholm shot blocked by teammate
  137. P1 06:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicolas Roy saved by Connor Ingram
  138. P1 05:20
    Giveaway by Ty Emberson in neutral zone
  139. P1 05:07
    SHOT
    Ty Emberson shot blocked by teammate
  140. P1 04:49
    Jack Roslovic won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  141. P1 04:47
    SHOT
    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by William Nylander
  142. P1 04:20
    Stoppage - Icing
  143. P1 04:14
    Giveaway by William Nylander in offensive zone
  144. P1 04:01
    SHOT
    Connor McDavid shot blocked by Simon Benoit
  145. P1 03:05
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  146. P1 03:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Trent Frederic
  147. P1 02:45
    Giveaway by Mattias Janmark in offensive zone
  148. P1 02:36
    Giveaway by Troy Stecher in defensive zone
  149. P1 01:45
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  150. P1 01:41
    Kasperi Kapanen credited with hit on Oliver Ekman-Larsson in offensive zone
  151. P1 01:17
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  152. P1 01:03
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  153. P1 01:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Connor Ingram
  154. P1 00:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Connor Ingram
  155. P1 00:04
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  156. P1 00:00
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McDavid in neutral zone
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Oilers
27Shots on Goal36
54% Faceoff Win % 46%
2/2 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
9Penalty Infraction Mins21
13Hits19
18 Shots Blocked 7
18Giveaways13
Maple LeafsTOR
OilersEDM
27Shots on Goal36
54% Faceoff Win % 46%
2/2 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
9Penalty Infraction Mins21
13Hits19
18 Shots Blocked 7
18Giveaways13

Maple Leafs vs. Oilers: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Oilers
  • Date: Tuesday, February 3, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Rogers Place

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Oilers favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +160, Oilers -190

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 40%
  • Oilers: 60%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 40%, while the Oilers have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Oilers are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Rogers Place on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Oilers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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