Lightning vs. Stars Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Stars NHL game on January 18, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
Get 6 months of Dimers Pro for just $99.99
FINAL
NHL
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
NHL sport icon
NHL
Lightning
4
1
American Airlines Center
Stars
American Airlines Center
TEAM123T
Lightning
1 2 1 4
Stars
1 0 0 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    100%
  • Stars
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
1 2 1 4
Stars
1 0 0 1
P3 17:56 Goal scored by Pontus Holmberg
P3 17:30 Jason Robertson shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 16:37 Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
P3 16:31 Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
P3 14:46 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 14:00 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 13:42 Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jake Oettinger
P3 12:53 Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
P3 10:52 Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin
P3 10:41 Dominic James shot blocked by Esa Lindell
P3 09:19 Power play - Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 09:10 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Radek Faksa saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 06:31 Shot missed by Kyle Capobianco
P3 04:45 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 04:03 Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
P3 03:16 Ilya Lyubushkin shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
P3 01:54 Shot on goal by Mavrik Bourque saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 00:46 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 00:35 Roope Hintz shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P2 18:26 Shot on goal by Mikko Rantanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:51
    Dominic James won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in neutral zone
  3. P3 19:51
    Stoppage - High Stick
  4. P3 18:29
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Colin Blackwell in offensive zone
  5. P3 17:59
    Dominic James won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in neutral zone
  6. P3 17:56
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Pontus Holmberg
    4-1
  7. P3 17:30
    SHOT
    Jason Robertson shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  8. P3 17:17
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
  9. P3 17:17
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - Home Timeout
  10. P3 16:37
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
  11. P3 16:31
    SHOT
    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
  12. P3 16:05
    Wyatt Johnston won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  13. P3 15:03
    Takeaway by Dominic James in defensive zone
  14. P3 14:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  15. P3 14:27
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  16. P3 14:27
    Stoppage - Icing
  17. P3 14:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  18. P3 13:55
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  19. P3 13:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jake Oettinger
  20. P3 12:57
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  21. P3 12:53
    SHOT
    Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
  22. P3 12:20
    Radek Faksa credited with hit on Declan Carlile in offensive zone
  23. P3 11:17
    Takeaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous in offensive zone
  24. P3 10:52
    SHOT
    Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin
  25. P3 10:41
    SHOT
    Dominic James shot blocked by Esa Lindell
  26. P3 09:46
    Giveaway by Pontus Holmberg in neutral zone
  27. P3 09:30
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  28. P3 09:19
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  29. P3 09:10
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Radek Faksa saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  30. P3 08:51
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Justin Hryckowian in defensive zone
  31. P3 08:33
    Power play - Oliver Bjorkstrand credited with hit on Miro Heiskanen in offensive zone
  32. P3 07:48
    Shorthanded - Sam Steel won faceoff against Jack Finley in defensive zone
  33. P3 07:48
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  34. P3 07:26
    Penalty to Colin Blackwell 2 minutes for Interference
  35. P3 07:26
    Lightning won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
  36. P3 06:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kyle Capobianco
  37. P3 05:09
    Giveaway by Erik Cernak in offensive zone
  38. P3 05:06
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in offensive zone
  39. P3 05:06
    Stoppage - Icing
  40. P3 04:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  41. P3 04:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
  42. P3 03:16
    SHOT
    Ilya Lyubushkin shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
  43. P3 02:31
    Jack Finley credited with hit on Thomas Harley in neutral zone
  44. P3 02:12
    Giveaway by Oskar Back in defensive zone
  45. P3 01:57
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in defensive zone
  46. P3 01:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mavrik Bourque saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  47. P3 00:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  48. P3 00:35
    SHOT
    Roope Hintz shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  49. P3 00:00
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Roope Hintz in neutral zone
  50. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  51. P2 18:50
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  52. P2 18:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mikko Rantanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  53. P2 18:13
    SHOT
    Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Nick Paul
  54. P2 17:48
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in defensive zone
  55. P2 17:38
    SHOT
    Justin Hryckowian shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  56. P2 17:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Justin Hryckowian saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  57. P2 16:39
    Jamie Benn won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  58. P2 16:15
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in defensive zone
  59. P2 16:12
    Power play - Giveaway by Jason Robertson in offensive zone
  60. P2 14:59
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Mikko Rantanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  61. P2 14:53
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Wyatt Johnston saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  62. P2 14:35
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  63. P2 14:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Roope Hintz saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  64. P2 14:20
    Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Mikko Rantanen)
  65. P2 14:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Harley saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  66. P2 13:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jake Oettinger
  67. P2 13:34
    Radek Faksa won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  68. P2 13:34
    Stoppage - Skater Puck Frozen
  69. P2 11:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Jake Oettinger
  70. P2 11:10
    Oliver Bjorkstrand credited with hit on Nils Lundkvist in offensive zone
  71. P2 11:04
    Lightning won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
  72. P2 11:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  73. P2 10:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Sam Steel saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  74. P2 10:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Jake Oettinger
  75. P2 10:20
    Wyatt Johnston won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  76. P2 10:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Wyatt Johnston saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  77. P2 10:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ilya Lyubushkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  78. P2 09:14
    Colin Blackwell credited with hit on Erik Cernak in neutral zone
  79. P2 09:07
    Radek Faksa won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  80. P2 09:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Jake Oettinger
  81. P2 08:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
  82. P2 08:42
    Lightning won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
  83. P2 07:53
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jake Oettinger
  84. P2 07:48
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  85. P2 07:25
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jake Oettinger
  86. P2 06:16
    Shorthanded - Oskar Back won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  87. P2 05:47
    SHOT
    Roope Hintz shot blocked by teammate
  88. P2 05:35
    Giveaway by Max Crozier in offensive zone
  89. P2 05:17
    SHOT
    Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  90. P2 05:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Esa Lindell saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  91. P2 05:09
    Stoppage - Icing
  92. P2 04:56
    Sam Steel won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  93. P2 04:51
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in neutral zone
  94. P2 04:51
    Stoppage - Offside
  95. P2 04:42
    Oliver Bjorkstrand won faceoff against Stars in offensive zone
  96. P2 04:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  97. P2 03:37
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Colin Blackwell in neutral zone
  98. P2 03:08
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Colin Blackwell in offensive zone
  99. P2 03:08
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  100. P2 02:54
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by teammate
  101. P2 02:06
    SHOT
    Matt Duchene shot blocked by Max Crozier
  102. P2 01:48
    Dominic James won faceoff against Roope Hintz in offensive zone
  103. P2 01:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  104. P2 01:19
    Takeaway by Sam Steel in offensive zone
  105. P2 00:56
    Giveaway by Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  106. P2 00:00
    Oskar Back won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  107. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  108. P1 19:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jason Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  109. P1 18:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jason Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  110. P1 18:47
    SHOT
    Thomas Harley shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
  111. P1 18:28
    Giveaway by J.J. Moser in offensive zone
  112. P1 18:04
    Wyatt Johnston won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  113. P1 18:04
    Penalty to Justin Hryckowian 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Declan Carlile)
  114. P1 18:04
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  115. P1 17:00
    Giveaway by Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
  116. P1 16:11
    Colin Blackwell credited with hit on Charle-Edouard D'Astous in offensive zone
  117. P1 15:56
    Colin Blackwell won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  118. P1 15:56
    Stoppage - Icing
  119. P1 15:49
    Lightning won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
  120. P1 15:27
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in offensive zone
  121. P1 14:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  122. P1 14:43
    SHOT
    Wyatt Johnston shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
  123. P1 13:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Roope Hintz saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  124. P1 11:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Jake Oettinger
  125. P1 10:45
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in defensive zone
  126. P1 10:26
    Lightning won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
  127. P1 09:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Jake Oettinger
  128. P1 08:27
    Mavrik Bourque won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  129. P1 08:27
    Stoppage - Icing
  130. P1 08:04
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Dominic James
    1-1
  131. P1 07:53
    SHOT
    Colin Blackwell shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
  132. P1 06:12
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Jake Oettinger
  133. P1 05:24
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Mikko Rantanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  134. P1 05:24
    Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Radek Faksa)
  135. P1 04:12
    Roope Hintz credited with hit on Nick Paul in offensive zone
  136. P1 04:00
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Roope Hintz in neutral zone
  137. P1 03:52
    Takeaway by Oskar Back in offensive zone
  138. P1 03:51
    Mavrik Bourque credited with hit on Nikita Kucherov in offensive zone
  139. P1 02:43
    Sam Steel won faceoff against Jack Finley in offensive zone
  140. P1 02:43
    Stoppage - Icing
  141. P1 02:05
    Roope Hintz credited with hit on Charle-Edouard D'Astous in neutral zone
  142. P1 01:35
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Roope Hintz in neutral zone
  143. P1 00:44
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  144. P1 00:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Miro Heiskanen
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Stars
26Shots on Goal20
40% Faceoff Win % 60%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins6
21Hits16
14 Shots Blocked 14
17Giveaways13
LightningTB
StarsDAL
26Shots on Goal20
40% Faceoff Win % 60%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins6
21Hits16
14 Shots Blocked 14
17Giveaways13

Lightning vs. Stars: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Stars
  • Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
  • Time: 2:00 PM ET
  • Venue: American Airlines Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning -115, Stars +100

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 52%
  • Stars: 48%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 52%, while the Stars have a win probability of 48%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Stars in the NHL game at American Airlines Center on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Stars predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.