Lightning vs. Jets prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 8, 2026

The Tampa Bay Lightning are favored to beat the Winnipeg Jets at Canada Life Centre on Sunday (6:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Lightning vs. Jets prediction gives Tampa Bay a 57.2% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the under 6.5 goals.

Lightning vs. Jets key predictions

• Lightning win probability: 57.2%
• Jets win probability: 42.8%
• Jets +1.5 puck line: 64.6% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 54.9% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Lightning vs. Jets odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track. Novig has the best price in every market for this game.

• Lightning moneyline: 59¢ (Novig)
• Jets moneyline: 42¢ (Novig)
• Lightning -1.5: 36¢ (Novig)
• Jets +1.5: 64¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 48¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 53¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Lightning vs. Jets pick: Under 6.5 (53¢)

Our model makes the Lightning the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 6.5 total goals at 53¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 52.5%, while our model puts it at 54.9%.

That's a 2.4% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Lightning vs. Jets goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Kyle Connor of the Jets leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Sunday's game at 42.5%, followed by Tampa Bay's Jake Guentzel (38.9%). Connor also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 9.0%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Kyle Connor (Jets): 42.5%
2. Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 38.9%
3. Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 36.3%
4. Mark Scheifele (Jets): 34.6%
5. Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 34.6%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Kyle Connor (Jets): 9.0%
2. Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 8.2%
3. Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 7.1%
4. Mark Scheifele (Jets): 6.7%
5. Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 6.5%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Lightning vs. Jets prediction with Dimers Pro

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• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Lightning vs. Jets game details

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Winnipeg Jets
• Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026
• Puck drop: 6:00 PM ET
• Venue: Canada Life Centre

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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